Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight cluster around 31–35°C for Jakarta's May 17 peak temperature, mirroring the spread in BMKG short-range forecasts and global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project highs of 32–34°C under early dry season conditions with high equatorial solar insolation and urban heat island effects at Halim Perdanakusuma station. Light rain threats and cloud cover, indicated at 70–90% probabilities, could suppress peaks toward 31–32°C, while clearer skies and suppressed convection might push toward 34–35°C, consistent with recent days' 33–35°C observations and a drier-than-normal 2026 dry season per BMKG. New model runs and hourly BMKG updates by May 16 will likely refine this uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jakarta on May 17?
Highest temperature in Jakarta on May 17?
32°C 35%
33°C 33%
34°C 19%
31°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
5%
31°C
6%
32°C
35%
33°C
33%
34°C
19%
35°C
4%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 35%
33°C 33%
34°C 19%
31°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
27°C or below
$852 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$296 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$68 Vol.
3%
30°C
$57 Vol.
5%
31°C
$530 Vol.
6%
32°C
$63 Vol.
35%
33°C
$67 Vol.
33%
34°C
$64 Vol.
19%
35°C
$67 Vol.
4%
36°C
$100 Vol.
2%
37°C or higher
$445 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight cluster around 31–35°C for Jakarta's May 17 peak temperature, mirroring the spread in BMKG short-range forecasts and global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project highs of 32–34°C under early dry season conditions with high equatorial solar insolation and urban heat island effects at Halim Perdanakusuma station. Light rain threats and cloud cover, indicated at 70–90% probabilities, could suppress peaks toward 31–32°C, while clearer skies and suppressed convection might push toward 34–35°C, consistent with recent days' 33–35°C observations and a drier-than-normal 2026 dry season per BMKG. New model runs and hourly BMKG updates by May 16 will likely refine this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$2,610End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHHThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight cluster around 31–35°C for Jakarta's May 17 peak temperature, mirroring the spread in BMKG short-range forecasts and global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project highs of 32–34°C under early dry season conditions with high equatorial solar insolation and urban heat island effects at Halim Perdanakusuma station. Light rain threats and cloud cover, indicated at 70–90% probabilities, could suppress peaks toward 31–32°C, while clearer skies and suppressed convection might push toward 34–35°C, consistent with recent days' 33–35°C observations and a drier-than-normal 2026 dry season per BMKG. New model runs and hourly BMKG updates by May 16 will likely refine this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,610End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHHTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight cluster around 31–35°C for Jakarta's May 17 peak temperature, mirroring the spread in BMKG short-range forecasts and global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project highs of 32–34°C under early dry season conditions with high equatorial solar insolation and urban heat island effects at Halim Perdanakusuma station. Light rain threats and cloud cover, indicated at 70–90% probabilities, could suppress peaks toward 31–32°C, while clearer skies and suppressed convection might push toward 34–35°C, consistent with recent days' 33–35°C observations and a drier-than-normal 2026 dry season per BMKG. New model runs and hourly BMKG updates by May 16 will likely refine this uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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