Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in New York City-area forecast models for May 17 highs at LaGuardia Airport station, with no outcome exceeding 32% implied probability for 79°F or below amid diverging GFS and ECMWF runs showing a range from the upper 70s to upper 80s. Recent National Weather Service guidance points to partly cloudy conditions under weak high pressure, but key variables include cloud cover timing—thicker marine stratus could cap temperatures at 79°F or below via sea breeze reinforcement—while clearer skies and lighter winds favor 84-89°F bins via enhanced urban heating and subsidence. Upper 90s outcomes remain improbable (<1%) due to climatological rarity for mid-May (normal ~72°F) and lack of strong ridging. Watch for 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion, which often sharpen short-range probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 17?
86-87°F 32%
84-85°F 26%
88-89°F 23%
90-91°F 8.5%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
6%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
32%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
9%
92-93°F
3%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 32%
84-85°F 26%
88-89°F 23%
90-91°F 8.5%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
$1,028 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$767 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$707 Vol.
6%
84-85°F
$163 Vol.
26%
86-87°F
$200 Vol.
32%
88-89°F
$228 Vol.
23%
90-91°F
$143 Vol.
9%
92-93°F
$95 Vol.
3%
94-95°F
$173 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$335 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$349 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in New York City-area forecast models for May 17 highs at LaGuardia Airport station, with no outcome exceeding 32% implied probability for 79°F or below amid diverging GFS and ECMWF runs showing a range from the upper 70s to upper 80s. Recent National Weather Service guidance points to partly cloudy conditions under weak high pressure, but key variables include cloud cover timing—thicker marine stratus could cap temperatures at 79°F or below via sea breeze reinforcement—while clearer skies and lighter winds favor 84-89°F bins via enhanced urban heating and subsidence. Upper 90s outcomes remain improbable (<1%) due to climatological rarity for mid-May (normal ~72°F) and lack of strong ridging. Watch for 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion, which often sharpen short-range probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$4,188End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in New York City-area forecast models for May 17 highs at LaGuardia Airport station, with no outcome exceeding 32% implied probability for 79°F or below amid diverging GFS and ECMWF runs showing a range from the upper 70s to upper 80s. Recent National Weather Service guidance points to partly cloudy conditions under weak high pressure, but key variables include cloud cover timing—thicker marine stratus could cap temperatures at 79°F or below via sea breeze reinforcement—while clearer skies and lighter winds favor 84-89°F bins via enhanced urban heating and subsidence. Upper 90s outcomes remain improbable (<1%) due to climatological rarity for mid-May (normal ~72°F) and lack of strong ridging. Watch for 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion, which often sharpen short-range probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,188End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGATrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in New York City-area forecast models for May 17 highs at LaGuardia Airport station, with no outcome exceeding 32% implied probability for 79°F or below amid diverging GFS and ECMWF runs showing a range from the upper 70s to upper 80s. Recent National Weather Service guidance points to partly cloudy conditions under weak high pressure, but key variables include cloud cover timing—thicker marine stratus could cap temperatures at 79°F or below via sea breeze reinforcement—while clearer skies and lighter winds favor 84-89°F bins via enhanced urban heating and subsidence. Upper 90s outcomes remain improbable (<1%) due to climatological rarity for mid-May (normal ~72°F) and lack of strong ridging. Watch for 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion, which often sharpen short-range probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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