Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting numerical weather prediction ensembles point to a daytime maximum near 25°C today, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure system promoting subsidence alongside a moist easterly flow that sustains cloud cover and limits solar heating. This setup aligns with current May climatology, where typical highs range 26–31°C under comparable synoptic patterns, and model consensus shows minimal spread around the expected peak. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this tight scientific agreement. An unexpected reduction in cloud cover or a late shift in steering winds could allow brief additional warming and push the reading to 26°C or higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17?
25°C 99.8%
26°C <1%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
$265,217 Vol.
$265,217 Vol.
May 17, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.8%
26°C <1%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
$265,217 Vol.
$265,217 Vol.
May 17, 2026
19°C or below
$3,029 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,037 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,261 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,657 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$6,693 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$38,087 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$103,568 Vol.
100%
26°C
$54,613 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$24,338 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$12,532 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$16,409 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting numerical weather prediction ensembles point to a daytime maximum near 25°C today, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure system promoting subsidence alongside a moist easterly flow that sustains cloud cover and limits solar heating. This setup aligns with current May climatology, where typical highs range 26–31°C under comparable synoptic patterns, and model consensus shows minimal spread around the expected peak. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this tight scientific agreement. An unexpected reduction in cloud cover or a late shift in steering winds could allow brief additional warming and push the reading to 26°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$265,217End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting numerical weather prediction ensembles point to a daytime maximum near 25°C today, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure system promoting subsidence alongside a moist easterly flow that sustains cloud cover and limits solar heating. This setup aligns with current May climatology, where typical highs range 26–31°C under comparable synoptic patterns, and model consensus shows minimal spread around the expected peak. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this tight scientific agreement. An unexpected reduction in cloud cover or a late shift in steering winds could allow brief additional warming and push the reading to 26°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$265,217End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETOfficial forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting numerical weather prediction ensembles point to a daytime maximum near 25°C today, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure system promoting subsidence alongside a moist easterly flow that sustains cloud cover and limits solar heating. This setup aligns with current May climatology, where typical highs range 26–31°C under comparable synoptic patterns, and model consensus shows minimal spread around the expected peak. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this tight scientific agreement. An unexpected reduction in cloud cover or a late shift in steering winds could allow brief additional warming and push the reading to 26°C or higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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