Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Metro Manila is the dominant factor capping daily maximum temperatures near 29–30°C for August 6, according to PAGASA guidance showing forecast highs of 30–31°C amid 80–90% rain probabilities. Cloud cover and frequent showers reduce surface heating by limiting solar insolation, a common climatological feature of the July–September Habagat season that historically keeps Manila’s August peaks 1–3°C below the drier-month average. Recent low-pressure systems and enhanced moisture convergence have reinforced this pattern, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 28–30°C outcomes while rendering 32°C-plus readings unlikely absent a rapid monsoon break. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA daily bulletin remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 6?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 6?
29°C 44%
30°C 28%
28°C 19%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
19%
29°C
44%
30°C
28%
31°C
5%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 44%
30°C 28%
28°C 19%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
25°C or below
$226 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$59 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$245 Vol.
3%
28°C
$194 Vol.
19%
29°C
$2,030 Vol.
44%
30°C
$582 Vol.
28%
31°C
$307 Vol.
5%
32°C
$116 Vol.
1%
33°C
$468 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$103 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$109 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Metro Manila is the dominant factor capping daily maximum temperatures near 29–30°C for August 6, according to PAGASA guidance showing forecast highs of 30–31°C amid 80–90% rain probabilities. Cloud cover and frequent showers reduce surface heating by limiting solar insolation, a common climatological feature of the July–September Habagat season that historically keeps Manila’s August peaks 1–3°C below the drier-month average. Recent low-pressure systems and enhanced moisture convergence have reinforced this pattern, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 28–30°C outcomes while rendering 32°C-plus readings unlikely absent a rapid monsoon break. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA daily bulletin remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$4,439End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Metro Manila is the dominant factor capping daily maximum temperatures near 29–30°C for August 6, according to PAGASA guidance showing forecast highs of 30–31°C amid 80–90% rain probabilities. Cloud cover and frequent showers reduce surface heating by limiting solar insolation, a common climatological feature of the July–September Habagat season that historically keeps Manila’s August peaks 1–3°C below the drier-month average. Recent low-pressure systems and enhanced moisture convergence have reinforced this pattern, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 28–30°C outcomes while rendering 32°C-plus readings unlikely absent a rapid monsoon break. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA daily bulletin remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,439End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Metro Manila is the dominant factor capping daily maximum temperatures near 29–30°C for August 6, according to PAGASA guidance showing forecast highs of 30–31°C amid 80–90% rain probabilities. Cloud cover and frequent showers reduce surface heating by limiting solar insolation, a common climatological feature of the July–September Habagat season that historically keeps Manila’s August peaks 1–3°C below the drier-month average. Recent low-pressure systems and enhanced moisture convergence have reinforced this pattern, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 28–30°C outcomes while rendering 32°C-plus readings unlikely absent a rapid monsoon break. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA daily bulletin remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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