The dominant 98.8% market-implied probability for a 36°C or higher maximum in Qingdao on August 5 stems from the Shandong Meteorological Observatory’s active high-temperature orange warning, which projects 37–39°C across northern districts through the period, following nearby peaks of 40.8°C on August 1. This aligns with a persistent regional heatwave driven by strong high-pressure subsidence, low humidity mixing, and above-normal insolation under mostly clear conditions. Coastal sea breezes may moderate some shoreline stations, yet the warning’s spatial extent and multi-day duration support trader consensus that official maxima will exceed the threshold. Only substantial revisions in afternoon model runs or localized marine influences could realistically alter this outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 5?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 5?
36°C or higher 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$31,822 Vol.
$31,822 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
100%
36°C or higher 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$31,822 Vol.
$31,822 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
26°C or below
$353 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$428 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$287 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$327 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$594 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$788 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,163 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$4,373 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$4,936 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$9,616 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$10,575 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant 98.8% market-implied probability for a 36°C or higher maximum in Qingdao on August 5 stems from the Shandong Meteorological Observatory’s active high-temperature orange warning, which projects 37–39°C across northern districts through the period, following nearby peaks of 40.8°C on August 1. This aligns with a persistent regional heatwave driven by strong high-pressure subsidence, low humidity mixing, and above-normal insolation under mostly clear conditions. Coastal sea breezes may moderate some shoreline stations, yet the warning’s spatial extent and multi-day duration support trader consensus that official maxima will exceed the threshold. Only substantial revisions in afternoon model runs or localized marine influences could realistically alter this outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$31,822End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant 98.8% market-implied probability for a 36°C or higher maximum in Qingdao on August 5 stems from the Shandong Meteorological Observatory’s active high-temperature orange warning, which projects 37–39°C across northern districts through the period, following nearby peaks of 40.8°C on August 1. This aligns with a persistent regional heatwave driven by strong high-pressure subsidence, low humidity mixing, and above-normal insolation under mostly clear conditions. Coastal sea breezes may moderate some shoreline stations, yet the warning’s spatial extent and multi-day duration support trader consensus that official maxima will exceed the threshold. Only substantial revisions in afternoon model runs or localized marine influences could realistically alter this outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31,822End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant 98.8% market-implied probability for a 36°C or higher maximum in Qingdao on August 5 stems from the Shandong Meteorological Observatory’s active high-temperature orange warning, which projects 37–39°C across northern districts through the period, following nearby peaks of 40.8°C on August 1. This aligns with a persistent regional heatwave driven by strong high-pressure subsidence, low humidity mixing, and above-normal insolation under mostly clear conditions. Coastal sea breezes may moderate some shoreline stations, yet the warning’s spatial extent and multi-day duration support trader consensus that official maxima will exceed the threshold. Only substantial revisions in afternoon model runs or localized marine influences could realistically alter this outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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