Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature of 28°C in Tokyo on August 13 under partly cloudy conditions with moderate northeasterly flow and high humidity near 70-85%. This aligns with observed trends where urban heat island effects and typical August sea-breeze patterns stabilize daytime highs in this narrow range rather than allowing further intensification. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability reflects real-time assimilation of these data, including recent model runs showing limited variability. A realistic shift could occur only if unexpected convective activity or a rapid change in cloud cover alters the energy balance enough to push the official station reading outside 28°C by day's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$81,148 Vol.
$81,148 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$81,148 Vol.
$81,148 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
$632 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,830 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,828 Vol.
No
26°C
$6,698 Vol.
No
27°C
$14,207 Vol.
No
28°C
$16,909 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$10,255 Vol.
No
30°C
$8,493 Vol.
No
31°C
$7,729 Vol.
No
32°C
$4,461 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$7,107 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature of 28°C in Tokyo on August 13 under partly cloudy conditions with moderate northeasterly flow and high humidity near 70-85%. This aligns with observed trends where urban heat island effects and typical August sea-breeze patterns stabilize daytime highs in this narrow range rather than allowing further intensification. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability reflects real-time assimilation of these data, including recent model runs showing limited variability. A realistic shift could occur only if unexpected convective activity or a rapid change in cloud cover alters the energy balance enough to push the official station reading outside 28°C by day's end.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$81,148End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature of 28°C in Tokyo on August 13 under partly cloudy conditions with moderate northeasterly flow and high humidity near 70-85%. This aligns with observed trends where urban heat island effects and typical August sea-breeze patterns stabilize daytime highs in this narrow range rather than allowing further intensification. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability reflects real-time assimilation of these data, including recent model runs showing limited variability. A realistic shift could occur only if unexpected convective activity or a rapid change in cloud cover alters the energy balance enough to push the official station reading outside 28°C by day's end.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$81,148End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature of 28°C in Tokyo on August 13 under partly cloudy conditions with moderate northeasterly flow and high humidity near 70-85%. This aligns with observed trends where urban heat island effects and typical August sea-breeze patterns stabilize daytime highs in this narrow range rather than allowing further intensification. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability reflects real-time assimilation of these data, including recent model runs showing limited variability. A realistic shift could occur only if unexpected convective activity or a rapid change in cloud cover alters the energy balance enough to push the official station reading outside 28°C by day's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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