Official records from the 2019 autopsy by the New York City medical examiner, along with subsequent DOJ and FBI reviews through 2025-2026, established Jeffrey Epstein's death by suicide in federal custody, with extensive file releases including prison footage and post-mortem details reinforcing this outcome. Traders assign 97.7% probability to "No" because all purported evidence of survival—such as resurfaced documents, AI-generated images, or administrative typos—has been consistently debunked as fabrications or errors by authorities and independent fact-checkers, with no verified sightings or contradictory forensic data emerging in over six years. Scenarios that could still shift the market include authenticated new physical evidence like a DNA match or official confirmation of an identity swap, though these remain unsupported by current records.