**Traders assign an 89% probability that no federal law banning sports prediction markets will be enacted in 2026.** Multiple bipartisan bills, including the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in March by Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis, seek to bar CFTC-regulated platforms from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, but none have advanced beyond committee. Related provisions failed to attach to the Clarity Act, which stalled in the Senate in September. State actions remain fragmented: Minnesota’s May outright ban was enjoined by federal court on preemption grounds, Utah redefined gambling to restrict proposition bets, and Illinois imposed licensing requirements, yet litigation and CFTC enforcement have preserved access in most jurisdictions. Ongoing Ninth Circuit and other rulings, plus the CFTC’s proposed rulemaking on event contracts, have reinforced federal oversight without triggering a nationwide prohibition. With legislative calendars tight and no breakthrough momentum, the market reflects limited near-term enactment risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
11% chance
$19,895 Vol.
$19,895 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
11% chance
$19,895 Vol.
$19,895 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign an 89% probability that no federal law banning sports prediction markets will be enacted in 2026.** Multiple bipartisan bills, including the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in March by Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis, seek to bar CFTC-regulated platforms from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, but none have advanced beyond committee. Related provisions failed to attach to the Clarity Act, which stalled in the Senate in September. State actions remain fragmented: Minnesota’s May outright ban was enjoined by federal court on preemption grounds, Utah redefined gambling to restrict proposition bets, and Illinois imposed licensing requirements, yet litigation and CFTC enforcement have preserved access in most jurisdictions. Ongoing Ninth Circuit and other rulings, plus the CFTC’s proposed rulemaking on event contracts, have reinforced federal oversight without triggering a nationwide prohibition. With legislative calendars tight and no breakthrough momentum, the market reflects limited near-term enactment risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$19,895End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign an 89% probability that no federal law banning sports prediction markets will be enacted in 2026.** Multiple bipartisan bills, including the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in March by Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis, seek to bar CFTC-regulated platforms from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, but none have advanced beyond committee. Related provisions failed to attach to the Clarity Act, which stalled in the Senate in September. State actions remain fragmented: Minnesota’s May outright ban was enjoined by federal court on preemption grounds, Utah redefined gambling to restrict proposition bets, and Illinois imposed licensing requirements, yet litigation and CFTC enforcement have preserved access in most jurisdictions. Ongoing Ninth Circuit and other rulings, plus the CFTC’s proposed rulemaking on event contracts, have reinforced federal oversight without triggering a nationwide prohibition. With legislative calendars tight and no breakthrough momentum, the market reflects limited near-term enactment risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,895End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 89% probability that no federal law banning sports prediction markets will be enacted in 2026.** Multiple bipartisan bills, including the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced in March by Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis, seek to bar CFTC-regulated platforms from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, but none have advanced beyond committee. Related provisions failed to attach to the Clarity Act, which stalled in the Senate in September. State actions remain fragmented: Minnesota’s May outright ban was enjoined by federal court on preemption grounds, Utah redefined gambling to restrict proposition bets, and Illinois imposed licensing requirements, yet litigation and CFTC enforcement have preserved access in most jurisdictions. Ongoing Ninth Circuit and other rulings, plus the CFTC’s proposed rulemaking on event contracts, have reinforced federal oversight without triggering a nationwide prohibition. With legislative calendars tight and no breakthrough momentum, the market reflects limited near-term enactment risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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