**Current forecasts from European meteorological models and agencies indicate a daily minimum near 16°C in Amsterdam on August 28, 2026, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, high humidity, and widespread cloud cover with thunderstorms limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Recent observations at Schiphol and urban stations show evening temperatures holding around 17–18°C, consistent with ensemble guidance projecting the low in the 16–17°C range rather than the long-term August average of 12.6°C. Trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C reflects this model agreement and the late-August timing, when the minimum is likely already recorded or imminent. A clear-sky breakout allowing stronger surface cooling or a sharper cold-air advection shift could push readings to 15°C or below, though such deviations remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 28?
16°C 100.0%
14°C 13%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
$5,911 Vol.
$5,911 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
14°C 13%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
$5,911 Vol.
$5,911 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
12°C or below
$457 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,648 Vol.
No
14°C
$53 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,901 Vol.
No
16°C
$487 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$936 Vol.
No
18°C
$131 Vol.
No
19°C
$88 Vol.
No
20°C
$30 Vol.
No
21°C
$45 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$135 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from European meteorological models and agencies indicate a daily minimum near 16°C in Amsterdam on August 28, 2026, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, high humidity, and widespread cloud cover with thunderstorms limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Recent observations at Schiphol and urban stations show evening temperatures holding around 17–18°C, consistent with ensemble guidance projecting the low in the 16–17°C range rather than the long-term August average of 12.6°C. Trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C reflects this model agreement and the late-August timing, when the minimum is likely already recorded or imminent. A clear-sky breakout allowing stronger surface cooling or a sharper cold-air advection shift could push readings to 15°C or below, though such deviations remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$5,911End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from European meteorological models and agencies indicate a daily minimum near 16°C in Amsterdam on August 28, 2026, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, high humidity, and widespread cloud cover with thunderstorms limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Recent observations at Schiphol and urban stations show evening temperatures holding around 17–18°C, consistent with ensemble guidance projecting the low in the 16–17°C range rather than the long-term August average of 12.6°C. Trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C reflects this model agreement and the late-August timing, when the minimum is likely already recorded or imminent. A clear-sky breakout allowing stronger surface cooling or a sharper cold-air advection shift could push readings to 15°C or below, though such deviations remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,911End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Current forecasts from European meteorological models and agencies indicate a daily minimum near 16°C in Amsterdam on August 28, 2026, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, high humidity, and widespread cloud cover with thunderstorms limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Recent observations at Schiphol and urban stations show evening temperatures holding around 17–18°C, consistent with ensemble guidance projecting the low in the 16–17°C range rather than the long-term August average of 12.6°C. Trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C reflects this model agreement and the late-August timing, when the minimum is likely already recorded or imminent. A clear-sky breakout allowing stronger surface cooling or a sharper cold-air advection shift could push readings to 15°C or below, though such deviations remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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