Persistent rainfall and extensive cloud cover over Chongqing are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around 19–21°C for the September 16 overnight low, with 20°C leading at 32%. High humidity near 90% and light northeast winds limit radiative cooling after sunset, while model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS shows a slow-moving front delivering 10–16 mm of rain that day. This setup favors minimums near 17–19°C if skies remain overcast, but clearer breaks or stronger northerly flow could push readings to 21°C or higher. Historical mid-September baselines average 21–22°C lows, yet the current unsettled pattern has already cooled recent nights by 2–3°C, leaving traders balancing the probability of further suppression versus modest rebound. Updated model runs and official CMA guidance expected in the next 24 hours will likely sharpen these distinctions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chongqing on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Chongqing on September 16?
15°C or below 56%
16°C 39%
17°C 39%
18°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
15°C or below
56%
16°C
39%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C
27%
20°C
32%
21°C
24%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C or higher
1%
15°C or below 56%
16°C 39%
17°C 39%
18°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
56%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
32%
21°C
$0 Vol.
24%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C or higher
$132 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rainfall and extensive cloud cover over Chongqing are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around 19–21°C for the September 16 overnight low, with 20°C leading at 32%. High humidity near 90% and light northeast winds limit radiative cooling after sunset, while model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS shows a slow-moving front delivering 10–16 mm of rain that day. This setup favors minimums near 17–19°C if skies remain overcast, but clearer breaks or stronger northerly flow could push readings to 21°C or higher. Historical mid-September baselines average 21–22°C lows, yet the current unsettled pattern has already cooled recent nights by 2–3°C, leaving traders balancing the probability of further suppression versus modest rebound. Updated model runs and official CMA guidance expected in the next 24 hours will likely sharpen these distinctions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$132End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rainfall and extensive cloud cover over Chongqing are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around 19–21°C for the September 16 overnight low, with 20°C leading at 32%. High humidity near 90% and light northeast winds limit radiative cooling after sunset, while model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS shows a slow-moving front delivering 10–16 mm of rain that day. This setup favors minimums near 17–19°C if skies remain overcast, but clearer breaks or stronger northerly flow could push readings to 21°C or higher. Historical mid-September baselines average 21–22°C lows, yet the current unsettled pattern has already cooled recent nights by 2–3°C, leaving traders balancing the probability of further suppression versus modest rebound. Updated model runs and official CMA guidance expected in the next 24 hours will likely sharpen these distinctions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$132End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rainfall and extensive cloud cover over Chongqing are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around 19–21°C for the September 16 overnight low, with 20°C leading at 32%. High humidity near 90% and light northeast winds limit radiative cooling after sunset, while model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS shows a slow-moving front delivering 10–16 mm of rain that day. This setup favors minimums near 17–19°C if skies remain overcast, but clearer breaks or stronger northerly flow could push readings to 21°C or higher. Historical mid-September baselines average 21–22°C lows, yet the current unsettled pattern has already cooled recent nights by 2–3°C, leaving traders balancing the probability of further suppression versus modest rebound. Updated model runs and official CMA guidance expected in the next 24 hours will likely sharpen these distinctions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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