Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature of 19–21°C in Chongqing on September 15, driven by an incoming weather system bringing widespread cloud cover, high humidity near 85–95%, and periods of light rain that moderate overnight cooling. These conditions limit radiative heat loss compared to clear skies, keeping the low from dropping toward the 16°C or below outcome while also capping any rebound above 22°C. Model runs show minor divergence in exact timing of precipitation and wind shifts, which accounts for the tight spread between the leading 20°C and 21°C probabilities. Historical September averages near 22°C provide context, but the active pattern favors the cooler side of normal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chongqing on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Chongqing on September 15?
21°C 40%
16°C or below 39%
20°C 32%
19°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
16°C or below
39%
17°C
20%
18°C
21%
19°C
25%
20°C
32%
21°C
35%
22°C
19%
23°C
18%
24°C
9%
25°C
13%
26°C or higher
8%
21°C 40%
16°C or below 39%
20°C 32%
19°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
16°C or below
$66 Vol.
39%
17°C
$17 Vol.
20%
18°C
$17 Vol.
21%
19°C
$49 Vol.
25%
20°C
$55 Vol.
32%
21°C
$22 Vol.
35%
22°C
$17 Vol.
19%
23°C
$17 Vol.
18%
24°C
$29 Vol.
9%
25°C
$10 Vol.
13%
26°C or higher
$10 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature of 19–21°C in Chongqing on September 15, driven by an incoming weather system bringing widespread cloud cover, high humidity near 85–95%, and periods of light rain that moderate overnight cooling. These conditions limit radiative heat loss compared to clear skies, keeping the low from dropping toward the 16°C or below outcome while also capping any rebound above 22°C. Model runs show minor divergence in exact timing of precipitation and wind shifts, which accounts for the tight spread between the leading 20°C and 21°C probabilities. Historical September averages near 22°C provide context, but the active pattern favors the cooler side of normal.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$309End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature of 19–21°C in Chongqing on September 15, driven by an incoming weather system bringing widespread cloud cover, high humidity near 85–95%, and periods of light rain that moderate overnight cooling. These conditions limit radiative heat loss compared to clear skies, keeping the low from dropping toward the 16°C or below outcome while also capping any rebound above 22°C. Model runs show minor divergence in exact timing of precipitation and wind shifts, which accounts for the tight spread between the leading 20°C and 21°C probabilities. Historical September averages near 22°C provide context, but the active pattern favors the cooler side of normal.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$309End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature of 19–21°C in Chongqing on September 15, driven by an incoming weather system bringing widespread cloud cover, high humidity near 85–95%, and periods of light rain that moderate overnight cooling. These conditions limit radiative heat loss compared to clear skies, keeping the low from dropping toward the 16°C or below outcome while also capping any rebound above 22°C. Model runs show minor divergence in exact timing of precipitation and wind shifts, which accounts for the tight spread between the leading 20°C and 21°C probabilities. Historical September averages near 22°C provide context, but the active pattern favors the cooler side of normal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions