**Forecast models from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and European centers currently converge on a September 6 minimum near 20–22°C under clear, high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly winds, limiting overnight radiative cooling.** This setup favors the tightly clustered 17–21°C market outcomes at roughly 25–26.5% each, as traders weigh model spread in boundary-layer temperatures and urban heat-island effects in Istanbul. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 17°C, but the current warm anomaly and absence of cloud cover or stronger advection keep probabilities for sub-16°C outcomes lower at 25% or below. Updated model runs and official minimum observations on the day will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
13°C or below 89%
23°C or higher 89%
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
89%
14°C
50%
15°C
50%
16°C
50%
17°C
27%
18°C
27%
19°C
27%
20°C
27%
21°C
27%
22°C
50%
23°C or higher
89%
13°C or below 89%
23°C or higher 89%
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
89%
14°C
$0 Vol.
50%
15°C
$0 Vol.
50%
16°C
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$10 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
50%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and European centers currently converge on a September 6 minimum near 20–22°C under clear, high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly winds, limiting overnight radiative cooling.** This setup favors the tightly clustered 17–21°C market outcomes at roughly 25–26.5% each, as traders weigh model spread in boundary-layer temperatures and urban heat-island effects in Istanbul. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 17°C, but the current warm anomaly and absence of cloud cover or stronger advection keep probabilities for sub-16°C outcomes lower at 25% or below. Updated model runs and official minimum observations on the day will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and European centers currently converge on a September 6 minimum near 20–22°C under clear, high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly winds, limiting overnight radiative cooling.** This setup favors the tightly clustered 17–21°C market outcomes at roughly 25–26.5% each, as traders weigh model spread in boundary-layer temperatures and urban heat-island effects in Istanbul. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 17°C, but the current warm anomaly and absence of cloud cover or stronger advection keep probabilities for sub-16°C outcomes lower at 25% or below. Updated model runs and official minimum observations on the day will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and European centers currently converge on a September 6 minimum near 20–22°C under clear, high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly winds, limiting overnight radiative cooling.** This setup favors the tightly clustered 17–21°C market outcomes at roughly 25–26.5% each, as traders weigh model spread in boundary-layer temperatures and urban heat-island effects in Istanbul. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 17°C, but the current warm anomaly and absence of cloud cover or stronger advection keep probabilities for sub-16°C outcomes lower at 25% or below. Updated model runs and official minimum observations on the day will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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