Recent Met Office guidance points to a minimum of 14°C in London on August 5, yet market odds cluster tightly around 18–19°C, reflecting trader assessment of limited overnight radiative cooling under lingering warm, humid air from the prior day’s 29°C peak. Key differentiators include variable cloud cover that could suppress temperature drops by 2–3°C, light winds reducing mixing, and London’s urban heat island effect, which often elevates minimums 1–2°C above rural forecasts. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty in exact dew-point depression and boundary-layer evolution overnight, with any increase in clear skies favoring the lower outcome while persistent humidity supports the higher. Updated guidance later today will clarify these variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 5?
Lowest temperature in London on August 5?
18°C 51%
19°C 43%
17°C 1.6%
15°C <1%
$37,002 Vol.
$37,002 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
51%
19°C
43%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 51%
19°C 43%
17°C 1.6%
15°C <1%
$37,002 Vol.
$37,002 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
13°C or below
$1,564 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,204 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$4,269 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$3,167 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$6,918 Vol.
2%
18°C
$4,799 Vol.
51%
19°C
$5,856 Vol.
43%
20°C
$6,177 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,658 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$342 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$391 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance points to a minimum of 14°C in London on August 5, yet market odds cluster tightly around 18–19°C, reflecting trader assessment of limited overnight radiative cooling under lingering warm, humid air from the prior day’s 29°C peak. Key differentiators include variable cloud cover that could suppress temperature drops by 2–3°C, light winds reducing mixing, and London’s urban heat island effect, which often elevates minimums 1–2°C above rural forecasts. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty in exact dew-point depression and boundary-layer evolution overnight, with any increase in clear skies favoring the lower outcome while persistent humidity supports the higher. Updated guidance later today will clarify these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$37,002End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance points to a minimum of 14°C in London on August 5, yet market odds cluster tightly around 18–19°C, reflecting trader assessment of limited overnight radiative cooling under lingering warm, humid air from the prior day’s 29°C peak. Key differentiators include variable cloud cover that could suppress temperature drops by 2–3°C, light winds reducing mixing, and London’s urban heat island effect, which often elevates minimums 1–2°C above rural forecasts. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty in exact dew-point depression and boundary-layer evolution overnight, with any increase in clear skies favoring the lower outcome while persistent humidity supports the higher. Updated guidance later today will clarify these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$37,002End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office guidance points to a minimum of 14°C in London on August 5, yet market odds cluster tightly around 18–19°C, reflecting trader assessment of limited overnight radiative cooling under lingering warm, humid air from the prior day’s 29°C peak. Key differentiators include variable cloud cover that could suppress temperature drops by 2–3°C, light winds reducing mixing, and London’s urban heat island effect, which often elevates minimums 1–2°C above rural forecasts. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty in exact dew-point depression and boundary-layer evolution overnight, with any increase in clear skies favoring the lower outcome while persistent humidity supports the higher. Updated guidance later today will clarify these variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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