Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability to 13°C as Mexico City’s lowest temperature on August 27, reflecting strong consensus around official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations and model guidance for the Valley of Mexico at roughly 2,240 m elevation. Late-August conditions during the rainy season typically feature cloud cover and moderate humidity that limit nighttime radiative cooling, producing minimums near historical baselines of 10–12°C. Recent model runs showed limited spread, with no major cold-air intrusions or clear-sky anomalies expected to push readings lower. Upcoming confirmation from central station data releases could further solidify resolution, though revisions in post-analysis or localized urban heat effects remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 27?
13°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$3,072 Vol.
$3,072 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$3,072 Vol.
$3,072 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
9°C or below
$192 Vol.
No
10°C
$379 Vol.
No
11°C
$555 Vol.
No
12°C
$544 Vol.
No
13°C
$674 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$148 Vol.
No
15°C
$133 Vol.
No
16°C
$38 Vol.
No
17°C
$89 Vol.
No
18°C
$160 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$160 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability to 13°C as Mexico City’s lowest temperature on August 27, reflecting strong consensus around official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations and model guidance for the Valley of Mexico at roughly 2,240 m elevation. Late-August conditions during the rainy season typically feature cloud cover and moderate humidity that limit nighttime radiative cooling, producing minimums near historical baselines of 10–12°C. Recent model runs showed limited spread, with no major cold-air intrusions or clear-sky anomalies expected to push readings lower. Upcoming confirmation from central station data releases could further solidify resolution, though revisions in post-analysis or localized urban heat effects remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$3,072End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability to 13°C as Mexico City’s lowest temperature on August 27, reflecting strong consensus around official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations and model guidance for the Valley of Mexico at roughly 2,240 m elevation. Late-August conditions during the rainy season typically feature cloud cover and moderate humidity that limit nighttime radiative cooling, producing minimums near historical baselines of 10–12°C. Recent model runs showed limited spread, with no major cold-air intrusions or clear-sky anomalies expected to push readings lower. Upcoming confirmation from central station data releases could further solidify resolution, though revisions in post-analysis or localized urban heat effects remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,072End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability to 13°C as Mexico City’s lowest temperature on August 27, reflecting strong consensus around official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations and model guidance for the Valley of Mexico at roughly 2,240 m elevation. Late-August conditions during the rainy season typically feature cloud cover and moderate humidity that limit nighttime radiative cooling, producing minimums near historical baselines of 10–12°C. Recent model runs showed limited spread, with no major cold-air intrusions or clear-sky anomalies expected to push readings lower. Upcoming confirmation from central station data releases could further solidify resolution, though revisions in post-analysis or localized urban heat effects remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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