**Current short-range forecasts from multiple models place Moscow’s overnight low on September 3 in the 13–15 °C range, driven by a moderating southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light precipitation that limits radiative cooling.** Historical climatology for the date shows an average low of 10.3 °C (1991–2020), so the projected values sit slightly above normal but well within the typical early-September envelope. The near-even split between the sub-8 °C and 18 °C+ buckets, alongside 25.5 % probabilities clustered on 9–17 °C, reflects residual model spread on exact minimums rather than a binary warm/cold outcome. Key variables still in play include the timing and coverage of any showers (which suppress nocturnal temperature drops) and the strength of boundary-layer mixing under southwesterly winds of 3–7 m/s. Clearer breaks could allow brief radiative cooling toward the lower end of guidance, while persistent cloud or rain would anchor readings closer to 14–15 °C. Updated ECMWF and Roshydromet runs expected on September 2 will narrow the envelope ahead of market resolution, with the primary uncertainty now centered on how quickly any approaching frontal boundary arrives overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 3?
8°C or below 99%
18°C or higher 98%
15°C 50%
9°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
8°C or below
99%
9°C
26%
10°C
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
50%
16°C
26%
17°C
4%
18°C or higher
98%
8°C or below 99%
18°C or higher 98%
15°C 50%
9°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
8°C or below
$5 Vol.
99%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$5 Vol.
50%
16°C
$10 Vol.
26%
17°C
$5 Vol.
4%
18°C or higher
$5 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts from multiple models place Moscow’s overnight low on September 3 in the 13–15 °C range, driven by a moderating southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light precipitation that limits radiative cooling.** Historical climatology for the date shows an average low of 10.3 °C (1991–2020), so the projected values sit slightly above normal but well within the typical early-September envelope.
The near-even split between the sub-8 °C and 18 °C+ buckets, alongside 25.5 % probabilities clustered on 9–17 °C, reflects residual model spread on exact minimums rather than a binary warm/cold outcome. Key variables still in play include the timing and coverage of any showers (which suppress nocturnal temperature drops) and the strength of boundary-layer mixing under southwesterly winds of 3–7 m/s. Clearer breaks could allow brief radiative cooling toward the lower end of guidance, while persistent cloud or rain would anchor readings closer to 14–15 °C.
Updated ECMWF and Roshydromet runs expected on September 2 will narrow the envelope ahead of market resolution, with the primary uncertainty now centered on how quickly any approaching frontal boundary arrives overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts from multiple models place Moscow’s overnight low on September 3 in the 13–15 °C range, driven by a moderating southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light precipitation that limits radiative cooling.** Historical climatology for the date shows an average low of 10.3 °C (1991–2020), so the projected values sit slightly above normal but well within the typical early-September envelope.
The near-even split between the sub-8 °C and 18 °C+ buckets, alongside 25.5 % probabilities clustered on 9–17 °C, reflects residual model spread on exact minimums rather than a binary warm/cold outcome. Key variables still in play include the timing and coverage of any showers (which suppress nocturnal temperature drops) and the strength of boundary-layer mixing under southwesterly winds of 3–7 m/s. Clearer breaks could allow brief radiative cooling toward the lower end of guidance, while persistent cloud or rain would anchor readings closer to 14–15 °C.
Updated ECMWF and Roshydromet runs expected on September 2 will narrow the envelope ahead of market resolution, with the primary uncertainty now centered on how quickly any approaching frontal boundary arrives overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current short-range forecasts from multiple models place Moscow’s overnight low on September 3 in the 13–15 °C range, driven by a moderating southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light precipitation that limits radiative cooling.** Historical climatology for the date shows an average low of 10.3 °C (1991–2020), so the projected values sit slightly above normal but well within the typical early-September envelope. The near-even split between the sub-8 °C and 18 °C+ buckets, alongside 25.5 % probabilities clustered on 9–17 °C, reflects residual model spread on exact minimums rather than a binary warm/cold outcome. Key variables still in play include the timing and coverage of any showers (which suppress nocturnal temperature drops) and the strength of boundary-layer mixing under southwesterly winds of 3–7 m/s. Clearer breaks could allow brief radiative cooling toward the lower end of guidance, while persistent cloud or rain would anchor readings closer to 14–15 °C. Updated ECMWF and Roshydromet runs expected on September 2 will narrow the envelope ahead of market resolution, with the primary uncertainty now centered on how quickly any approaching frontal boundary arrives overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions