Current National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to an overnight low near 70–71°F in New York City on August 5, driven by moderate dew points in the mid-60s, partial cloud cover limiting radiational cooling, and light southerly flow that prevents strong nocturnal temperature drops. These conditions align with early-August climatology, where Central Park averages hover around 68–72°F for daily minima amid peak humidity and urban heat-island effects. The 68–69°F bin receives secondary support from any clearing that could enhance surface heat loss, while higher outcomes remain unlikely absent an unexpected warm advection surge. Updated model runs and official NHC/NOAA briefings through the evening will refine these probabilities ahead of final daily observations used for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 5?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 5?
70-71°F 63%
68-69°F 28%
72-73°F 10%
66-67°F 1.0%
NEW
$10,230 Vol.
NEW
$10,230 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
57°F or below
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
28%
70-71°F
63%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
1%
76°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 63%
68-69°F 28%
72-73°F 10%
66-67°F 1.0%
NEW
$10,230 Vol.
NEW
$10,230 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
57°F or below
$207 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$362 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$361 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$918 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$1,150 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$329 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$686 Vol.
28%
70-71°F
$1,701 Vol.
63%
72-73°F
$314 Vol.
10%
74-75°F
$2,545 Vol.
1%
76°F or higher
$1,657 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to an overnight low near 70–71°F in New York City on August 5, driven by moderate dew points in the mid-60s, partial cloud cover limiting radiational cooling, and light southerly flow that prevents strong nocturnal temperature drops. These conditions align with early-August climatology, where Central Park averages hover around 68–72°F for daily minima amid peak humidity and urban heat-island effects. The 68–69°F bin receives secondary support from any clearing that could enhance surface heat loss, while higher outcomes remain unlikely absent an unexpected warm advection surge. Updated model runs and official NHC/NOAA briefings through the evening will refine these probabilities ahead of final daily observations used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$10,230End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to an overnight low near 70–71°F in New York City on August 5, driven by moderate dew points in the mid-60s, partial cloud cover limiting radiational cooling, and light southerly flow that prevents strong nocturnal temperature drops. These conditions align with early-August climatology, where Central Park averages hover around 68–72°F for daily minima amid peak humidity and urban heat-island effects. The 68–69°F bin receives secondary support from any clearing that could enhance surface heat loss, while higher outcomes remain unlikely absent an unexpected warm advection surge. Updated model runs and official NHC/NOAA briefings through the evening will refine these probabilities ahead of final daily observations used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,230End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to an overnight low near 70–71°F in New York City on August 5, driven by moderate dew points in the mid-60s, partial cloud cover limiting radiational cooling, and light southerly flow that prevents strong nocturnal temperature drops. These conditions align with early-August climatology, where Central Park averages hover around 68–72°F for daily minima amid peak humidity and urban heat-island effects. The 68–69°F bin receives secondary support from any clearing that could enhance surface heat loss, while higher outcomes remain unlikely absent an unexpected warm advection surge. Updated model runs and official NHC/NOAA briefings through the evening will refine these probabilities ahead of final daily observations used for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions