Current weather observations and short-range forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate that temperatures in Paris have remained at or above 20°C through the early hours of August 5, 2026, with minimal overnight cooling under stable high-pressure conditions and warm southerly flow. This has produced a market-implied probability exceeding 90% for a daily minimum of exactly 20°C, reflecting the consensus of real-time data showing the lowest readings so far clustered near that threshold. Typical August nocturnal minima in the region hover near 15–17°C, but recent model runs and surface analyses support limited radiative cooling tonight due to cloud cover and humidity. A realistic challenge to this outcome would require an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air or clearer skies promoting stronger radiative heat loss, though such shifts appear unlikely given the current synoptic pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 5?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 5?
20°C 93%
19°C 6%
18°C 4%
17°C 2%
$16,024 Vol.
$16,024 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
4%
19°C
6%
20°C
93%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
20°C 93%
19°C 6%
18°C 4%
17°C 2%
$16,024 Vol.
$16,024 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
16°C or below
$1,115 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$324 Vol.
2%
18°C
$823 Vol.
4%
19°C
$3,429 Vol.
6%
20°C
$1,972 Vol.
93%
21°C
$4,712 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,200 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,022 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$659 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$416 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current weather observations and short-range forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate that temperatures in Paris have remained at or above 20°C through the early hours of August 5, 2026, with minimal overnight cooling under stable high-pressure conditions and warm southerly flow. This has produced a market-implied probability exceeding 90% for a daily minimum of exactly 20°C, reflecting the consensus of real-time data showing the lowest readings so far clustered near that threshold. Typical August nocturnal minima in the region hover near 15–17°C, but recent model runs and surface analyses support limited radiative cooling tonight due to cloud cover and humidity. A realistic challenge to this outcome would require an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air or clearer skies promoting stronger radiative heat loss, though such shifts appear unlikely given the current synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16,024End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current weather observations and short-range forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate that temperatures in Paris have remained at or above 20°C through the early hours of August 5, 2026, with minimal overnight cooling under stable high-pressure conditions and warm southerly flow. This has produced a market-implied probability exceeding 90% for a daily minimum of exactly 20°C, reflecting the consensus of real-time data showing the lowest readings so far clustered near that threshold. Typical August nocturnal minima in the region hover near 15–17°C, but recent model runs and surface analyses support limited radiative cooling tonight due to cloud cover and humidity. A realistic challenge to this outcome would require an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air or clearer skies promoting stronger radiative heat loss, though such shifts appear unlikely given the current synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,024End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current weather observations and short-range forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate that temperatures in Paris have remained at or above 20°C through the early hours of August 5, 2026, with minimal overnight cooling under stable high-pressure conditions and warm southerly flow. This has produced a market-implied probability exceeding 90% for a daily minimum of exactly 20°C, reflecting the consensus of real-time data showing the lowest readings so far clustered near that threshold. Typical August nocturnal minima in the region hover near 15–17°C, but recent model runs and surface analyses support limited radiative cooling tonight due to cloud cover and humidity. A realistic challenge to this outcome would require an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air or clearer skies promoting stronger radiative heat loss, though such shifts appear unlikely given the current synoptic pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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