Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate Shanghai’s overnight minimum on August 29 will likely settle near 26–28 °C, reflecting high boundary-layer moisture (dew points near 25–26 °C), light southeast winds under 3–8 m/s that limit turbulent mixing, and residual cloud cover following earlier typhoon-related moisture. These conditions suppress radiative cooling typical of clear subtropical nights, keeping the lowest temperature from falling further while also preventing a spike above 28 °C. Ensemble spread remains modest for this short-range period, with the 27 °C outcome leading because most guidance clusters there; small differences in overnight cloud fraction or exact wind direction can shift the realized minimum by 1 °C either way. Updated model guidance and local observations through August 28 will refine the final distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 29?
27°C 50%
28°C 35%
26°C 18%
24°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
22°C or below
4%
23°C
10%
24°C
15%
25°C
12%
26°C
18%
27°C
46%
28°C
35%
29°C
11%
30°C
1%
31°C
13%
32°C or higher
10%
27°C 50%
28°C 35%
26°C 18%
24°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
22°C or below
$5 Vol.
4%
23°C
$5 Vol.
10%
24°C
$5 Vol.
15%
25°C
$0 Vol.
12%
26°C
$0 Vol.
18%
27°C
$6 Vol.
46%
28°C
$0 Vol.
35%
29°C
$0 Vol.
11%
30°C
$0 Vol.
1%
31°C
$5 Vol.
13%
32°C or higher
$5 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate Shanghai’s overnight minimum on August 29 will likely settle near 26–28 °C, reflecting high boundary-layer moisture (dew points near 25–26 °C), light southeast winds under 3–8 m/s that limit turbulent mixing, and residual cloud cover following earlier typhoon-related moisture. These conditions suppress radiative cooling typical of clear subtropical nights, keeping the lowest temperature from falling further while also preventing a spike above 28 °C. Ensemble spread remains modest for this short-range period, with the 27 °C outcome leading because most guidance clusters there; small differences in overnight cloud fraction or exact wind direction can shift the realized minimum by 1 °C either way. Updated model guidance and local observations through August 28 will refine the final distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$31End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate Shanghai’s overnight minimum on August 29 will likely settle near 26–28 °C, reflecting high boundary-layer moisture (dew points near 25–26 °C), light southeast winds under 3–8 m/s that limit turbulent mixing, and residual cloud cover following earlier typhoon-related moisture. These conditions suppress radiative cooling typical of clear subtropical nights, keeping the lowest temperature from falling further while also preventing a spike above 28 °C. Ensemble spread remains modest for this short-range period, with the 27 °C outcome leading because most guidance clusters there; small differences in overnight cloud fraction or exact wind direction can shift the realized minimum by 1 °C either way. Updated model guidance and local observations through August 28 will refine the final distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate Shanghai’s overnight minimum on August 29 will likely settle near 26–28 °C, reflecting high boundary-layer moisture (dew points near 25–26 °C), light southeast winds under 3–8 m/s that limit turbulent mixing, and residual cloud cover following earlier typhoon-related moisture. These conditions suppress radiative cooling typical of clear subtropical nights, keeping the lowest temperature from falling further while also preventing a spike above 28 °C. Ensemble spread remains modest for this short-range period, with the 27 °C outcome leading because most guidance clusters there; small differences in overnight cloud fraction or exact wind direction can shift the realized minimum by 1 °C either way. Updated model guidance and local observations through August 28 will refine the final distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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