Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models point to mostly cloudy skies over Shanghai on September 12, with light easterly winds and moderate humidity limiting overnight radiative cooling and supporting a lowest temperature near 23–24°C. Official guidance and ensemble outputs show minimal day-to-day variability in the current setup, keeping the two leading outcomes closely matched as traders weigh subtle differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture. Historical September climatology for the region features average lows in the low 20s°C, providing context for the tight market-implied probabilities. Updated model runs and official briefings from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 12?
24°C 44%
23°C 26%
25°C 19%
21°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
18°C or below
6%
19°C
5%
20°C
12%
21°C
17%
22°C
17%
23°C
26%
24°C
44%
25°C
19%
26°C
14%
27°C
10%
28°C or higher
7%
24°C 44%
23°C 26%
25°C 19%
21°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
6%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
12%
21°C
$0 Vol.
17%
22°C
$0 Vol.
17%
23°C
$373 Vol.
26%
24°C
$195 Vol.
44%
25°C
$747 Vol.
19%
26°C
$0 Vol.
14%
27°C
$0 Vol.
10%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models point to mostly cloudy skies over Shanghai on September 12, with light easterly winds and moderate humidity limiting overnight radiative cooling and supporting a lowest temperature near 23–24°C. Official guidance and ensemble outputs show minimal day-to-day variability in the current setup, keeping the two leading outcomes closely matched as traders weigh subtle differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture. Historical September climatology for the region features average lows in the low 20s°C, providing context for the tight market-implied probabilities. Updated model runs and official briefings from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,316End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models point to mostly cloudy skies over Shanghai on September 12, with light easterly winds and moderate humidity limiting overnight radiative cooling and supporting a lowest temperature near 23–24°C. Official guidance and ensemble outputs show minimal day-to-day variability in the current setup, keeping the two leading outcomes closely matched as traders weigh subtle differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture. Historical September climatology for the region features average lows in the low 20s°C, providing context for the tight market-implied probabilities. Updated model runs and official briefings from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,316End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models point to mostly cloudy skies over Shanghai on September 12, with light easterly winds and moderate humidity limiting overnight radiative cooling and supporting a lowest temperature near 23–24°C. Official guidance and ensemble outputs show minimal day-to-day variability in the current setup, keeping the two leading outcomes closely matched as traders weigh subtle differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture. Historical September climatology for the region features average lows in the low 20s°C, providing context for the tight market-implied probabilities. Updated model runs and official briefings from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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