Traders assign closely matched probabilities to the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 12 reaching 19°C or below versus 29°C or higher because short-range forecast models diverge on key drivers of diurnal temperature range. A strengthening Azores high combined with variable Mediterranean sea surface temperatures near 27–28°C could enhance subsidence and clear skies for greater daytime heating, while an approaching upper-level trough may increase cloud cover, moisture advection, and nocturnal radiative cooling. Historical September baselines show average minima near 22–24°C, yet current ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any frontal passage. Updated model runs and official Israel Meteorological Service observations over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution criteria around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 12?
19°C or below 88%
29°C or higher 87%
25°C 40%
26°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
19°C or below
88%
20°C
20%
21°C
19%
22°C
15%
23°C
12%
24°C
22%
25°C
40%
26°C
39%
27°C
39%
28°C
39%
29°C or higher
87%
19°C or below 88%
29°C or higher 87%
25°C 40%
26°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
88%
20°C
$0 Vol.
20%
21°C
$0 Vol.
19%
22°C
$0 Vol.
15%
23°C
$0 Vol.
12%
24°C
$0 Vol.
22%
25°C
$0 Vol.
40%
26°C
$0 Vol.
39%
27°C
$0 Vol.
39%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign closely matched probabilities to the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 12 reaching 19°C or below versus 29°C or higher because short-range forecast models diverge on key drivers of diurnal temperature range. A strengthening Azores high combined with variable Mediterranean sea surface temperatures near 27–28°C could enhance subsidence and clear skies for greater daytime heating, while an approaching upper-level trough may increase cloud cover, moisture advection, and nocturnal radiative cooling. Historical September baselines show average minima near 22–24°C, yet current ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any frontal passage. Updated model runs and official Israel Meteorological Service observations over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution criteria around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign closely matched probabilities to the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 12 reaching 19°C or below versus 29°C or higher because short-range forecast models diverge on key drivers of diurnal temperature range. A strengthening Azores high combined with variable Mediterranean sea surface temperatures near 27–28°C could enhance subsidence and clear skies for greater daytime heating, while an approaching upper-level trough may increase cloud cover, moisture advection, and nocturnal radiative cooling. Historical September baselines show average minima near 22–24°C, yet current ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any frontal passage. Updated model runs and official Israel Meteorological Service observations over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution criteria around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign closely matched probabilities to the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 12 reaching 19°C or below versus 29°C or higher because short-range forecast models diverge on key drivers of diurnal temperature range. A strengthening Azores high combined with variable Mediterranean sea surface temperatures near 27–28°C could enhance subsidence and clear skies for greater daytime heating, while an approaching upper-level trough may increase cloud cover, moisture advection, and nocturnal radiative cooling. Historical September baselines show average minima near 22–24°C, yet current ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any frontal passage. Updated model runs and official Israel Meteorological Service observations over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution criteria around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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