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icon for Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?

icon for Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?

Aug 7

Aug 8

Aug 7

Aug 8

27°C 47%

26°C 46%

25°C 5%

24°C 4%

Polymarket
NEW

27°C 47%

26°C 46%

25°C 5%

24°C 4%

Polymarket
NEW

21°C or below

$109 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$132 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$92 Vol.

1%

24°C

$379 Vol.

4%

25°C

$84 Vol.

5%

26°C

$249 Vol.

46%

27°C

$1,342 Vol.

47%

28°C

$97 Vol.

2%

29°C

$150 Vol.

2%

30°C

$62 Vol.

1%

31°C or higher

$302 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature on August 8 hinges on radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, with the Japan Meteorological Agency forecasting a 25°C low amid daytime highs near 34°C. The tight 26°C–27°C split in trader sentiment reflects uncertainty in urban heat island retention, where concrete and asphalt slow nighttime heat loss compared to rural baselines, plus variable low-level wind and humidity that can suppress or enhance cooling by 1–2°C. Recent model consensus points to limited cloud cover overnight, favoring clearer radiative emission, yet small shifts in steering flow or localized moisture could tip the observed minimum between these thresholds. Historical August averages for Tokyo hover near 24–25°C, underscoring how current atmospheric stability keeps odds clustered around the forecast while leaving room for minor upward revisions.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,998
End Date
Aug 8, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature on August 8 hinges on radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, with the Japan Meteorological Agency forecasting a 25°C low amid daytime highs near 34°C. The tight 26°C–27°C split in trader sentiment reflects uncertainty in urban heat island retention, where concrete and asphalt slow nighttime heat loss compared to rural baselines, plus variable low-level wind and humidity that can suppress or enhance cooling by 1–2°C. Recent model consensus points to limited cloud cover overnight, favoring clearer radiative emission, yet small shifts in steering flow or localized moisture could tip the observed minimum between these thresholds. Historical August averages for Tokyo hover near 24–25°C, underscoring how current atmospheric stability keeps odds clustered around the forecast while leaving room for minor upward revisions.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,998
End Date
Aug 8, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "27°C" at 47%, followed by "26°C" at 46%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?" is "27°C" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "26°C" at 46%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.