Incoming cold air advection from the north, combined with widespread precipitation, is driving trader positioning on Wuhan's September 17 minimum temperature. Official forecasts and ensemble guidance indicate a sharp cooldown, with models showing daily lows clustered near 18–20 °C amid northeasterly flow, high humidity, and 5–25 mm of rain that limits nighttime radiational cooling while enhancing evaporative effects. This setup creates a relatively narrow but uncertain range: stronger or earlier frontal passage could push minima toward 17 °C or below, whereas delayed rain or partial clearing might hold values near 21–22 °C. The near-even split between the 24 °C+ and 14 °C– buckets reflects model spread in timing and intensity of the cool surge, typical for transitional autumn systems where small shifts in steering flow alter the minimum by several degrees. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will likely tighten consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wuhan on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Wuhan on September 17?
24°C or higher 92%
14°C or below 90%
17°C 39%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
14°C or below
90%
15°C
17%
16°C
16%
17°C
39%
18°C
21%
19°C
22%
20°C
22%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
17%
24°C or higher
92%
24°C or higher 92%
14°C or below 90%
17°C 39%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
90%
15°C
$0 Vol.
17%
16°C
$0 Vol.
16%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
22%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
17%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Incoming cold air advection from the north, combined with widespread precipitation, is driving trader positioning on Wuhan's September 17 minimum temperature. Official forecasts and ensemble guidance indicate a sharp cooldown, with models showing daily lows clustered near 18–20 °C amid northeasterly flow, high humidity, and 5–25 mm of rain that limits nighttime radiational cooling while enhancing evaporative effects. This setup creates a relatively narrow but uncertain range: stronger or earlier frontal passage could push minima toward 17 °C or below, whereas delayed rain or partial clearing might hold values near 21–22 °C. The near-even split between the 24 °C+ and 14 °C– buckets reflects model spread in timing and intensity of the cool surge, typical for transitional autumn systems where small shifts in steering flow alter the minimum by several degrees. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will likely tighten consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Incoming cold air advection from the north, combined with widespread precipitation, is driving trader positioning on Wuhan's September 17 minimum temperature. Official forecasts and ensemble guidance indicate a sharp cooldown, with models showing daily lows clustered near 18–20 °C amid northeasterly flow, high humidity, and 5–25 mm of rain that limits nighttime radiational cooling while enhancing evaporative effects. This setup creates a relatively narrow but uncertain range: stronger or earlier frontal passage could push minima toward 17 °C or below, whereas delayed rain or partial clearing might hold values near 21–22 °C. The near-even split between the 24 °C+ and 14 °C– buckets reflects model spread in timing and intensity of the cool surge, typical for transitional autumn systems where small shifts in steering flow alter the minimum by several degrees. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will likely tighten consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incoming cold air advection from the north, combined with widespread precipitation, is driving trader positioning on Wuhan's September 17 minimum temperature. Official forecasts and ensemble guidance indicate a sharp cooldown, with models showing daily lows clustered near 18–20 °C amid northeasterly flow, high humidity, and 5–25 mm of rain that limits nighttime radiational cooling while enhancing evaporative effects. This setup creates a relatively narrow but uncertain range: stronger or earlier frontal passage could push minima toward 17 °C or below, whereas delayed rain or partial clearing might hold values near 21–22 °C. The near-even split between the 24 °C+ and 14 °C– buckets reflects model spread in timing and intensity of the cool surge, typical for transitional autumn systems where small shifts in steering flow alter the minimum by several degrees. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will likely tighten consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions