Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election consistently place the AfD first at 35-36 percent, followed by the SPD at 28-29 percent, with the Left at 11-12 percent, the CDU at 9-10 percent, and smaller parties trailing further. This stable ordering, unchanged in surveys from March through early July, underpins trader positioning that the SPD will finish second. The AfD's sustained lead as the plurality party reduces its probability for second place, while the SPD's position as the main challenger and incumbent governing party with Minister-President Manuela Schwesig anchors expectations. Coalition arithmetic and turnout patterns in eastern states have not altered the projected ranking in the final weeks before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSPD 87%
AfD 12.8%
CDU <1%
FDP <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
SPD
87%
AfD
13%
CDU
<1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
Grüne
<1%
Linke
<1%
SPD 87%
AfD 12.8%
CDU <1%
FDP <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
SPD
$1,102 Vol.
87%
AfD
$1,371 Vol.
13%
CDU
$381 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$610 Vol.
<1%
FW
$458 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$349 Vol.
<1%
Grüne
$425 Vol.
<1%
Linke
$424 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election consistently place the AfD first at 35-36 percent, followed by the SPD at 28-29 percent, with the Left at 11-12 percent, the CDU at 9-10 percent, and smaller parties trailing further. This stable ordering, unchanged in surveys from March through early July, underpins trader positioning that the SPD will finish second. The AfD's sustained lead as the plurality party reduces its probability for second place, while the SPD's position as the main challenger and incumbent governing party with Minister-President Manuela Schwesig anchors expectations. Coalition arithmetic and turnout patterns in eastern states have not altered the projected ranking in the final weeks before the vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$5,120End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election consistently place the AfD first at 35-36 percent, followed by the SPD at 28-29 percent, with the Left at 11-12 percent, the CDU at 9-10 percent, and smaller parties trailing further. This stable ordering, unchanged in surveys from March through early July, underpins trader positioning that the SPD will finish second. The AfD's sustained lead as the plurality party reduces its probability for second place, while the SPD's position as the main challenger and incumbent governing party with Minister-President Manuela Schwesig anchors expectations. Coalition arithmetic and turnout patterns in eastern states have not altered the projected ranking in the final weeks before the vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$5,120End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election consistently place the AfD first at 35-36 percent, followed by the SPD at 28-29 percent, with the Left at 11-12 percent, the CDU at 9-10 percent, and smaller parties trailing further. This stable ordering, unchanged in surveys from March through early July, underpins trader positioning that the SPD will finish second. The AfD's sustained lead as the plurality party reduces its probability for second place, while the SPD's position as the main challenger and incumbent governing party with Minister-President Manuela Schwesig anchors expectations. Coalition arithmetic and turnout patterns in eastern states have not altered the projected ranking in the final weeks before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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