AfD maintains a strong lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag polling averages ahead of the September 20, 2026 election, consistently placing first at 35-36 percent while the incumbent SPD trails in the high 20s. This positioning reflects sustained regional support for the AfD in eastern states amid broader national trends, with limited movement in recent surveys from Infratest dimap and INSA. Traders price a high probability of an AfD plurality because smaller parties such as the CDU, Greens, and FDP poll well below the five percent threshold, complicating any anti-AfD coalition and raising the prospect of a minority government or difficult negotiations. SPD Minister-President Manuela Schwesig's personal popularity offers some counterbalance but has not reversed the gap in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
AfD 84%
SPD 16%
Linke <1%
FW <1%
$445,231 Vol.
$445,231 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
84%
SPD
16%
Linke
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU
<1%
Grüne
<1%
FDP
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 84%
SPD 16%
Linke <1%
FW <1%
$445,231 Vol.
$445,231 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$73,162 Vol.
84%
SPD
$92,387 Vol.
16%
Linke
$27,668 Vol.
<1%
FW
$36,709 Vol.
<1%
CDU
$44,445 Vol.
<1%
Grüne
$71,444 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$77,089 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$22,326 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD maintains a strong lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag polling averages ahead of the September 20, 2026 election, consistently placing first at 35-36 percent while the incumbent SPD trails in the high 20s. This positioning reflects sustained regional support for the AfD in eastern states amid broader national trends, with limited movement in recent surveys from Infratest dimap and INSA. Traders price a high probability of an AfD plurality because smaller parties such as the CDU, Greens, and FDP poll well below the five percent threshold, complicating any anti-AfD coalition and raising the prospect of a minority government or difficult negotiations. SPD Minister-President Manuela Schwesig's personal popularity offers some counterbalance but has not reversed the gap in recent months.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$445,231End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD maintains a strong lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag polling averages ahead of the September 20, 2026 election, consistently placing first at 35-36 percent while the incumbent SPD trails in the high 20s. This positioning reflects sustained regional support for the AfD in eastern states amid broader national trends, with limited movement in recent surveys from Infratest dimap and INSA. Traders price a high probability of an AfD plurality because smaller parties such as the CDU, Greens, and FDP poll well below the five percent threshold, complicating any anti-AfD coalition and raising the prospect of a minority government or difficult negotiations. SPD Minister-President Manuela Schwesig's personal popularity offers some counterbalance but has not reversed the gap in recent months.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$445,231End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...AfD maintains a strong lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag polling averages ahead of the September 20, 2026 election, consistently placing first at 35-36 percent while the incumbent SPD trails in the high 20s. This positioning reflects sustained regional support for the AfD in eastern states amid broader national trends, with limited movement in recent surveys from Infratest dimap and INSA. Traders price a high probability of an AfD plurality because smaller parties such as the CDU, Greens, and FDP poll well below the five percent threshold, complicating any anti-AfD coalition and raising the prospect of a minority government or difficult negotiations. SPD Minister-President Manuela Schwesig's personal popularity offers some counterbalance but has not reversed the gap in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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