Recent polling from late September shows a fragmented contest for Minas Gerais’s two Senate seats, with Marília Campos (PT) holding a narrow numerical lead in consolidated vote shares while Domingos Sávio (PL), Carlos Viana (PSD), Aécio Neves (PSDB), and Marcelo Aro (PP) remain within or near the margin of error for second place. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with Aécio Neves’s relatively recent entry into the race and shifting alliances, have kept the ordering fluid. Traders assign the highest probability to Sávio for second because his PL base and recent survey gains position him to consolidate right-leaning support behind Viana’s incumbency, while Neves and Aro draw overlapping center-right votes that could split or consolidate depending on final campaign alignments and turnout patterns before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDomingos Sávio 27.4%
Carlos Viana 23%
Marília Campos 18%
Aécio Neves 13.7%
$52,563 Vol.
$52,563 Vol.
Domingos Sávio
38%
Carlos Viana
23%
Marília Campos
18%
Aécio Neves
14%
Marco Antônio Superman
9%
Marcelo Aro
7%
Áurea Carolina
2%
Ana Luiza do MLB
<1%
Arcanjo Pimenta
<1%
Carlin Moura
<1%
Fidélis Alcântara
<1%
Gustavo Galassi
<1%
Jordano Metalúrgico
<1%
Juiz Ramon Moreira
<1%
Manoel Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Heringer
<1%
Tião Pessoa
<1%
Victória Mello Vic
<1%
Domingos Sávio 27.4%
Carlos Viana 23%
Marília Campos 18%
Aécio Neves 13.7%
$52,563 Vol.
$52,563 Vol.
Domingos Sávio
38%
Carlos Viana
23%
Marília Campos
18%
Aécio Neves
14%
Marco Antônio Superman
9%
Marcelo Aro
7%
Áurea Carolina
2%
Ana Luiza do MLB
<1%
Arcanjo Pimenta
<1%
Carlin Moura
<1%
Fidélis Alcântara
<1%
Gustavo Galassi
<1%
Jordano Metalúrgico
<1%
Juiz Ramon Moreira
<1%
Manoel Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Heringer
<1%
Tião Pessoa
<1%
Victória Mello Vic
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late September shows a fragmented contest for Minas Gerais’s two Senate seats, with Marília Campos (PT) holding a narrow numerical lead in consolidated vote shares while Domingos Sávio (PL), Carlos Viana (PSD), Aécio Neves (PSDB), and Marcelo Aro (PP) remain within or near the margin of error for second place. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with Aécio Neves’s relatively recent entry into the race and shifting alliances, have kept the ordering fluid. Traders assign the highest probability to Sávio for second because his PL base and recent survey gains position him to consolidate right-leaning support behind Viana’s incumbency, while Neves and Aro draw overlapping center-right votes that could split or consolidate depending on final campaign alignments and turnout patterns before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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