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Geopolitics·UN

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

icon for Next Secretary-General of the United Nations
Geopolitics·UN

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rafael Grossi 56%

Rebeca Grynspan 23%

Michelle Bachelet 9.3%

Macky Sall 6.7%

Polymarket

$118,644 Vol.

Rafael Grossi 56%

Rebeca Grynspan 23%

Michelle Bachelet 9.3%

Macky Sall 6.7%

Polymarket

$118,644 Vol.

icon for Rafael Grossi

Rafael Grossi

$5,451 Vol.

56%

icon for Rebeca Grynspan

Rebeca Grynspan

$1,906 Vol.

23%

icon for Michelle Bachelet

Michelle Bachelet

$1,730 Vol.

9%

icon for Macky Sall

Macky Sall

$109,557 Vol.

7%

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rafael Grossi leads trader consensus in the race for the next United Nations Secretary-General, reflecting his established profile as IAEA Director General and recent visibility during the April 2026 interactive dialogues with General Assembly members. Grossi’s emphasis on institutional reform, preventive diplomacy, and managing polarized global security challenges has bolstered his position ahead of Rebeca Grynspan, whose UNCTAD leadership and focus on development and multilateralism place her second. Michelle Bachelet’s candidacy, supported by Brazil and Mexico after Chile withdrew its nomination, and Macky Sall’s African perspective as a former head of state remain factors, though both trail amid questions over regional backing and procedural momentum. The selection process, driven by Security Council consultations and eventual straw polls, continues to shape these implied probabilities ahead of the 2027 term.

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$118,644
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rafael Grossi leads trader consensus in the race for the next United Nations Secretary-General, reflecting his established profile as IAEA Director General and recent visibility during the April 2026 interactive dialogues with General Assembly members. Grossi’s emphasis on institutional reform, preventive diplomacy, and managing polarized global security challenges has bolstered his position ahead of Rebeca Grynspan, whose UNCTAD leadership and focus on development and multilateralism place her second. Michelle Bachelet’s candidacy, supported by Brazil and Mexico after Chile withdrew its nomination, and Macky Sall’s African perspective as a former head of state remain factors, though both trail amid questions over regional backing and procedural momentum. The selection process, driven by Security Council consultations and eventual straw polls, continues to shape these implied probabilities ahead of the 2027 term.

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$118,644
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Secretary-General of the United Nations" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rafael Grossi" at 56%, followed by "Rebeca Grynspan" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Secretary-General of the United Nations" has generated $118.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Secretary-General of the United Nations," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Secretary-General of the United Nations" is "Rafael Grossi" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rebeca Grynspan" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Secretary-General of the United Nations" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.