Recent pressure on Keir Starmer's leadership, following Labour's poor local election results, has positioned Andy Burnham as the clear frontrunner among traders for the next prime minister. The Greater Manchester mayor has secured a route back to Parliament via the upcoming Makerfield by-election, opening a direct path to challenge in any leadership contest. Wes Streeting has announced plans to enter such a race if triggered, while Angela Rayner and others receive lower implied probabilities. The 12.5% chance assigned to no change in 2026 aligns with the fixed timetable for the next general election, though ongoing internal party dynamics and by-election outcomes could still shift timelines and candidate prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAndy Burnham 56.6%
No Next PM in 2026 13%
Wes Streeting 10%
Angela Rayner 10%
$7,276,700 Vol.
$7,276,700 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Andy Burnham
57%
No Next PM in 2026
13%
Wes Streeting
10%
Angela Rayner
10%
Ed Miliband
7%
Al Carns
4%
Nigel Farage
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
Lucy Powell
<1%
Rupert Lowe
<1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
John Healey
<1%
Andy Burnham 56.6%
No Next PM in 2026 13%
Wes Streeting 10%
Angela Rayner 10%
$7,276,700 Vol.
$7,276,700 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Andy Burnham
$572,102 Vol.
57%
No Next PM in 2026
$398,063 Vol.
13%
Wes Streeting
$284,117 Vol.
10%
Angela Rayner
$472,816 Vol.
10%
Ed Miliband
$318,418 Vol.
7%
Al Carns
$214,817 Vol.
4%
Nigel Farage
$807,777 Vol.
1%
Yvette Cooper
$283,120 Vol.
1%
Shabana Mahmood
$298,443 Vol.
1%
Lucy Powell
$294,277 Vol.
<1%
Rupert Lowe
$689,923 Vol.
<1%
Rachel Reeves
$448,796 Vol.
<1%
Kemi Badenoch
$196,954 Vol.
<1%
Boris Johnson
$257,601 Vol.
<1%
Ed Davey
$352,678 Vol.
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
$135,232 Vol.
<1%
Robert Jenrick
$374,026 Vol.
<1%
David Lammy
$332,812 Vol.
<1%
James Cleverly
$296,454 Vol.
<1%
Darren Jones
$210,032 Vol.
<1%
John Healey
$38,441 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent pressure on Keir Starmer's leadership, following Labour's poor local election results, has positioned Andy Burnham as the clear frontrunner among traders for the next prime minister. The Greater Manchester mayor has secured a route back to Parliament via the upcoming Makerfield by-election, opening a direct path to challenge in any leadership contest. Wes Streeting has announced plans to enter such a race if triggered, while Angela Rayner and others receive lower implied probabilities. The 12.5% chance assigned to no change in 2026 aligns with the fixed timetable for the next general election, though ongoing internal party dynamics and by-election outcomes could still shift timelines and candidate prospects.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$7,276,700End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent pressure on Keir Starmer's leadership, following Labour's poor local election results, has positioned Andy Burnham as the clear frontrunner among traders for the next prime minister. The Greater Manchester mayor has secured a route back to Parliament via the upcoming Makerfield by-election, opening a direct path to challenge in any leadership contest. Wes Streeting has announced plans to enter such a race if triggered, while Angela Rayner and others receive lower implied probabilities. The 12.5% chance assigned to no change in 2026 aligns with the fixed timetable for the next general election, though ongoing internal party dynamics and by-election outcomes could still shift timelines and candidate prospects.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,276,700End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent pressure on Keir Starmer's leadership, following Labour's poor local election results, has positioned Andy Burnham as the clear frontrunner among traders for the next prime minister. The Greater Manchester mayor has secured a route back to Parliament via the upcoming Makerfield by-election, opening a direct path to challenge in any leadership contest. Wes Streeting has announced plans to enter such a race if triggered, while Angela Rayner and others receive lower implied probabilities. The 12.5% chance assigned to no change in 2026 aligns with the fixed timetable for the next general election, though ongoing internal party dynamics and by-election outcomes could still shift timelines and candidate prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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