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Politics·England

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

icon for Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
Politics·England

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

No Next PM in 2026 24%

Andy Burnham 23.3%

Ed Miliband 22.1%

Wes Streeting 14%

Polymarket

$6,101,779 Vol.

No Next PM in 2026 24%

Andy Burnham 23.3%

Ed Miliband 22.1%

Wes Streeting 14%

Polymarket

$6,101,779 Vol.

icon for No Next PM in 2026

No Next PM in 2026

$322,143 Vol.

24%

icon for Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham

$404,936 Vol.

23%

icon for Ed Miliband

Ed Miliband

$272,305 Vol.

22%

icon for Wes Streeting

Wes Streeting

$169,289 Vol.

14%

icon for Angela Rayner

Angela Rayner

$366,589 Vol.

11%

icon for Al Carns

Al Carns

$164,357 Vol.

4%

icon for Yvette Cooper

Yvette Cooper

$252,972 Vol.

3%

icon for Shabana Mahmood

Shabana Mahmood

$259,604 Vol.

1%

icon for Nigel Farage

Nigel Farage

$769,427 Vol.

1%

icon for Lucy Powell

Lucy Powell

$248,569 Vol.

1%

icon for David Lammy

David Lammy

$240,333 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rachel Reeves

Rachel Reeves

$416,807 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kemi Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch

$147,829 Vol.

<1%

icon for Bridget Phillipson

Bridget Phillipson

$115,821 Vol.

<1%

icon for Darren Jones

Darren Jones

$170,822 Vol.

<1%

icon for Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson

$223,344 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ed Davey

Ed Davey

$335,802 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rupert Lowe

Rupert Lowe

$620,158 Vol.

<1%

icon for Robert Jenrick

Robert Jenrick

$343,333 Vol.

<1%

icon for James Cleverly

James Cleverly

$257,812 Vol.

<1%

icon for John Healey

John Healey

$642 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Labour's crushing local election defeats last week have ignited a leadership revolt against Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with four ministers resigning, over 80 MPs demanding his departure, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting weighing a potential challenge, driving trader consensus toward a tight contest for next UK Prime Minister in 2026. The "No Next PM" outcome at 23.5% reflects Starmer's defiance, backing from over 100 MPs, and rebels' factional splits—soft-left favoring Andy Burnham or Ed Miliband, centrists eyeing Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner—preventing a unified push. Separation could emerge from Streeting's resignation, an NEC vote on Burnham's parliamentary candidacy, or a formal contest triggered by 20% of MPs nominating a challenger before year-end.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,101,779
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Labour's crushing local election defeats last week have ignited a leadership revolt against Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with four ministers resigning, over 80 MPs demanding his departure, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting weighing a potential challenge, driving trader consensus toward a tight contest for next UK Prime Minister in 2026. The "No Next PM" outcome at 23.5% reflects Starmer's defiance, backing from over 100 MPs, and rebels' factional splits—soft-left favoring Andy Burnham or Ed Miliband, centrists eyeing Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner—preventing a unified push. Separation could emerge from Streeting's resignation, an NEC vote on Burnham's parliamentary candidacy, or a formal contest triggered by 20% of MPs nominating a challenger before year-end.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,101,779
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Next PM in 2026" at 24%, followed by "Andy Burnham" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" has generated $6.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" is "No Next PM in 2026" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Andy Burnham" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.