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Politics·Senate Primary

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Senate Primary

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

Kevin Hern 95%

John M. O’Connor <1%

Wayne Lonny Washington <1%

Nick Hankins <1%

Polymarket

$59,653 Vol.

Kevin Hern 95%

John M. O’Connor <1%

Wayne Lonny Washington <1%

Nick Hankins <1%

Polymarket

$59,653 Vol.

Kevin Hern

$11,938 Vol.

95%

John M. O’Connor

$1,083 Vol.

1%

Wayne Lonny Washington

$1,255 Vol.

1%

Nick Hankins

$859 Vol.

1%

Stephanie Bice

$2,879 Vol.

1%

Markwayne Mullin

$37,901 Vol.

<1%

Donelle Harder

$893 Vol.

<1%

Ron Meinhardt

$1,197 Vol.

<1%

Tammy Swearengin

$837 Vol.

<1%

Matt Pinnell

$811 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Kevin Hern holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary for Oklahoma's open U.S. Senate seat, driven by his established congressional record, name recognition across the state, and early endorsement from President Trump following Markwayne Mullin's confirmation as homeland security secretary. The June 16 primary date leaves limited time for lesser-known challengers such as Nick Hankins or John M. O’Connor to gain traction through fundraising or voter outreach. Trader consensus at 94 percent for Hern reflects these structural advantages in a solidly Republican state, though late developments including any personal controversies, shifts in national party dynamics, or unexpected health issues could still open pathways for alternative outcomes before ballots are cast.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma.

If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$59,653
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 5:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Kevin Hern holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary for Oklahoma's open U.S. Senate seat, driven by his established congressional record, name recognition across the state, and early endorsement from President Trump following Markwayne Mullin's confirmation as homeland security secretary. The June 16 primary date leaves limited time for lesser-known challengers such as Nick Hankins or John M. O’Connor to gain traction through fundraising or voter outreach. Trader consensus at 94 percent for Hern reflects these structural advantages in a solidly Republican state, though late developments including any personal controversies, shifts in national party dynamics, or unexpected health issues could still open pathways for alternative outcomes before ballots are cast.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma.

If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$59,653
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 5:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Hern" at 95%, followed by "John M. O’Connor" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $59.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Kevin Hern" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John M. O’Connor" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.