Recent reports indicate OpenAI’s ambitious timeline for a 2026 initial public offering faces significant headwinds, with its CFO privately advocating a delay until 2027 amid heavy spending commitments, missed revenue targets, and the need for robust public-company reporting infrastructure. The company recently closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation while projecting multibillion-dollar losses in 2026, driven by massive investments in large language model training and compute infrastructure. These factors have solidified trader consensus around no IPO by December 31, 2026, as the primary outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include any Securities and Exchange Commission filing or updated guidance from CEO Sam Altman that could shift the closely watched market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by December 31, 2026 74%
1.5T+ 8.5%
1.25T–1.5T 3.7%
500–750B 3.5%
$1,638,745 Vol.
$1,638,745 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
1%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
2%
1T–1.25T
2%
1.25T–1.5T
4%
1.5T+
9%
No IPO by December 31, 2026
74%
No IPO by December 31, 2026 74%
1.5T+ 8.5%
1.25T–1.5T 3.7%
500–750B 3.5%
$1,638,745 Vol.
$1,638,745 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
$266,170 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$146,331 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$141,042 Vol.
2%
1T–1.25T
$182,614 Vol.
2%
1.25T–1.5T
$496,517 Vol.
4%
1.5T+
$101,032 Vol.
9%
No IPO by December 31, 2026
$305,039 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Recent reports indicate OpenAI’s ambitious timeline for a 2026 initial public offering faces significant headwinds, with its CFO privately advocating a delay until 2027 amid heavy spending commitments, missed revenue targets, and the need for robust public-company reporting infrastructure. The company recently closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation while projecting multibillion-dollar losses in 2026, driven by massive investments in large language model training and compute infrastructure. These factors have solidified trader consensus around no IPO by December 31, 2026, as the primary outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include any Securities and Exchange Commission filing or updated guidance from CEO Sam Altman that could shift the closely watched market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,638,745End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Recent reports indicate OpenAI’s ambitious timeline for a 2026 initial public offering faces significant headwinds, with its CFO privately advocating a delay until 2027 amid heavy spending commitments, missed revenue targets, and the need for robust public-company reporting infrastructure. The company recently closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation while projecting multibillion-dollar losses in 2026, driven by massive investments in large language model training and compute infrastructure. These factors have solidified trader consensus around no IPO by December 31, 2026, as the primary outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include any Securities and Exchange Commission filing or updated guidance from CEO Sam Altman that could shift the closely watched market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,638,745End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent reports indicate OpenAI’s ambitious timeline for a 2026 initial public offering faces significant headwinds, with its CFO privately advocating a delay until 2027 amid heavy spending commitments, missed revenue targets, and the need for robust public-company reporting infrastructure. The company recently closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation while projecting multibillion-dollar losses in 2026, driven by massive investments in large language model training and compute infrastructure. These factors have solidified trader consensus around no IPO by December 31, 2026, as the primary outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include any Securities and Exchange Commission filing or updated guidance from CEO Sam Altman that could shift the closely watched market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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