The Parti Québécois maintains a commanding position in trader assessments due to its consistent lead in recent polling aggregates, including strong support among francophones that translates into favorable seat projections under Quebec's first-past-the-post system. Multiple surveys conducted in mid-to-late September 2026 show the PQ holding 28-29% popular vote support overall and 34-37% among francophones, ahead of the CAQ at 20-22%, PLQ near 22-23%, and PCQ around 16-18%, with models such as 338Canada assigning the PQ roughly 99% odds of securing the most seats. This positioning reflects voter desire for change ahead of the October 5 election, combined with the PQ's regional advantages outside Montreal and performance on key issues like housing and public services. Late shifts in turnout among non-francophones, unforeseen campaign developments in the final days, or stronger-than-expected PCQ momentum in specific regions could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited scope for reversal.