Guilherme Derrite holds the strongest position for first place in São Paulo’s Senate race, driven by recent polling momentum and right-leaning consolidation. Latest surveys from Real Time Big Data and others show him leading or tied at the top in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, ahead of André do Prado, Simone Tebet, and Marina Silva, all within typical margins of error. Derrite’s profile as a former state security secretary and federal deputy, backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and aligned with PL and PP networks, bolsters his support among voters prioritizing public security and state resources. The two-seat structure and October 4 voting date keep the contest fluid, with left-leaning candidates drawing from Lula-aligned coalitions but trailing in the most recent head-to-head data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGuilherme Derrite 72%
Simone Tebet 9.4%
Marina Silva 8%
André do Prado 5.5%
$51,098 Vol.
$51,098 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
72%
Simone Tebet
9%
Marina Silva
8%
André do Prado
5%
Salles
1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Guilherme Derrite 72%
Simone Tebet 9.4%
Marina Silva 8%
André do Prado 5.5%
$51,098 Vol.
$51,098 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
$32,616 Vol.
72%
Simone Tebet
$2,723 Vol.
9%
Marina Silva
$5,575 Vol.
8%
André do Prado
$2,841 Vol.
5%
Salles
$2,593 Vol.
1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$613 Vol.
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$737 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$480 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$396 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$552 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$419 Vol.
<1%
Soninha Francine
$474 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$383 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$733 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Guilherme Derrite holds the strongest position for first place in São Paulo’s Senate race, driven by recent polling momentum and right-leaning consolidation. Latest surveys from Real Time Big Data and others show him leading or tied at the top in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, ahead of André do Prado, Simone Tebet, and Marina Silva, all within typical margins of error. Derrite’s profile as a former state security secretary and federal deputy, backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and aligned with PL and PP networks, bolsters his support among voters prioritizing public security and state resources. The two-seat structure and October 4 voting date keep the contest fluid, with left-leaning candidates drawing from Lula-aligned coalitions but trailing in the most recent head-to-head data.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$51,098End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Guilherme Derrite holds the strongest position for first place in São Paulo’s Senate race, driven by recent polling momentum and right-leaning consolidation. Latest surveys from Real Time Big Data and others show him leading or tied at the top in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, ahead of André do Prado, Simone Tebet, and Marina Silva, all within typical margins of error. Derrite’s profile as a former state security secretary and federal deputy, backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and aligned with PL and PP networks, bolsters his support among voters prioritizing public security and state resources. The two-seat structure and October 4 voting date keep the contest fluid, with left-leaning candidates drawing from Lula-aligned coalitions but trailing in the most recent head-to-head data.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$51,098End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Guilherme Derrite holds the strongest position for first place in São Paulo’s Senate race, driven by recent polling momentum and right-leaning consolidation. Latest surveys from Real Time Big Data and others show him leading or tied at the top in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, ahead of André do Prado, Simone Tebet, and Marina Silva, all within typical margins of error. Derrite’s profile as a former state security secretary and federal deputy, backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and aligned with PL and PP networks, bolsters his support among voters prioritizing public security and state resources. The two-seat structure and October 4 voting date keep the contest fluid, with left-leaning candidates drawing from Lula-aligned coalitions but trailing in the most recent head-to-head data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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