Tshisekedi’s second five-year term, secured in the disputed December 2023 election and confirmed by the Constitutional Court, runs until early 2028 with no scheduled presidential vote or formal removal process before then. His ruling Union Sacrée coalition holds parliamentary majorities, enabling institutional control and the recent passage of legislation that could facilitate constitutional changes. Ongoing eastern conflict with M23 rebels has allowed the administration to cite security concerns while co-opting or marginalizing opposition figures through appointments and legal actions. A May 2026 statement on possible third-term interest via referendum and a June 2026 bill advancing term-limit revisions have drawn opposition protests and coalition formation, yet these developments center on post-2028 scenarios rather than near-term removal. Traders assess the probability of resignation, coup, or other exit before December 31, 2026, as low given these structural advantages.