Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.2% "No" for Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the complete absence of any active federal investigations, indictments, or charges from the DOJ or FBI targeting the media commentator. Earlier 2026 claims of potential FARA violations over foreign contacts, raised in March amid Iran-related commentary, were dismissed by Trump administration officials with no subsequent procedural developments like arraignments or warrants in the intervening weeks. No recent announcements, court filings, or agency actions signal imminent legal jeopardy, solidifying the wisdom of crowds. Realistic shifts could stem from a surprise indictment on unrelated matters or late-breaking evidence, though structural barriers and lack of public signals make this improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.2% "No" for Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the complete absence of any active federal investigations, indictments, or charges from the DOJ or FBI targeting the media commentator. Earlier 2026 claims of potential FARA violations over foreign contacts, raised in March amid Iran-related commentary, were dismissed by Trump administration officials with no subsequent procedural developments like arraignments or warrants in the intervening weeks. No recent announcements, court filings, or agency actions signal imminent legal jeopardy, solidifying the wisdom of crowds. Realistic shifts could stem from a surprise indictment on unrelated matters or late-breaking evidence, though structural barriers and lack of public signals make this improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ET
Volume
$3,036End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.2% "No" for Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the complete absence of any active federal investigations, indictments, or charges from the DOJ or FBI targeting the media commentator. Earlier 2026 claims of potential FARA violations over foreign contacts, raised in March amid Iran-related commentary, were dismissed by Trump administration officials with no subsequent procedural developments like arraignments or warrants in the intervening weeks. No recent announcements, court filings, or agency actions signal imminent legal jeopardy, solidifying the wisdom of crowds. Realistic shifts could stem from a surprise indictment on unrelated matters or late-breaking evidence, though structural barriers and lack of public signals make this improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,036End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.2% "No" for Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the complete absence of any active federal investigations, indictments, or charges from the DOJ or FBI targeting the media commentator. Earlier 2026 claims of potential FARA violations over foreign contacts, raised in March amid Iran-related commentary, were dismissed by Trump administration officials with no subsequent procedural developments like arraignments or warrants in the intervening weeks. No recent announcements, court filings, or agency actions signal imminent legal jeopardy, solidifying the wisdom of crowds. Realistic shifts could stem from a surprise indictment on unrelated matters or late-breaking evidence, though structural barriers and lack of public signals make this improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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