The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, including renewed executive actions and OFAC designations targeting Iran’s oil shipping networks and proxy militias, remains the dominant driver shaping trader assessments of when broader OFAC sanctions relief might occur. Recent temporary general licenses authorizing limited transactions involving Iranian crude already at sea expired in mid-April 2026 amid efforts to stabilize global energy markets following U.S.-Israeli military operations, yet new Iran-related designations continued into May. Any sustained easing would likely hinge on verifiable progress in nuclear negotiations, Iranian compliance with existing restrictions, or shifts in congressional support for sanctions authority. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and oil market volatility through summer 2026 represent the nearest potential catalysts that could alter the current trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
24%
June 30
27%
$968 Vol.
May 31
$706 Vol.
24%
June 30
$412 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially suspends, waives, lifts, removes, or materially eases any existing direct OFAC sanctions on Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Sanctions could include measures like blocking sanctions, financial restrictions, trade restrictions, travel bans, restrictions on specific Iranian individuals or entities, sectoral sanctions, or any other Iran-related measures administered or enforced by OFAC that are commonly recognized as direct sanctions.
For purposes of this market, qualifying sanctions relief must materially suspend, waive, lift, or ease direct OFAC sanctions on Iran, the Government of Iran, Iranian persons or entities, Iranian sectors, or Iran-related transactions. Partial sanctions relief will qualify, including relief limited to a specific Iranian sector, Iranian state entity, Iranian financial institution, or category of Iran-related transactions. A new or expanded OFAC general license, waiver, regulation, or other official action will qualify if it materially authorizes activity that was previously prohibited under direct Iran-related OFAC sanctions.
Sanctions relief for a non-Iranian third party will not qualify, regardless of whether that party was sanctioned for Iran-related activity.
The passage of an official act/executive order or issuance of an official regulation, license, waiver, or other official action lifting or materially easing OFAC sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if the lifting or easing of those sanctions does not come into effect until after this market's resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of the Treasury and OFAC, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, including renewed executive actions and OFAC designations targeting Iran’s oil shipping networks and proxy militias, remains the dominant driver shaping trader assessments of when broader OFAC sanctions relief might occur. Recent temporary general licenses authorizing limited transactions involving Iranian crude already at sea expired in mid-April 2026 amid efforts to stabilize global energy markets following U.S.-Israeli military operations, yet new Iran-related designations continued into May. Any sustained easing would likely hinge on verifiable progress in nuclear negotiations, Iranian compliance with existing restrictions, or shifts in congressional support for sanctions authority. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and oil market volatility through summer 2026 represent the nearest potential catalysts that could alter the current trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially suspends, waives, lifts, removes, or materially eases any existing direct OFAC sanctions on Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Sanctions could include measures like blocking sanctions, financial restrictions, trade restrictions, travel bans, restrictions on specific Iranian individuals or entities, sectoral sanctions, or any other Iran-related measures administered or enforced by OFAC that are commonly recognized as direct sanctions.
For purposes of this market, qualifying sanctions relief must materially suspend, waive, lift, or ease direct OFAC sanctions on Iran, the Government of Iran, Iranian persons or entities, Iranian sectors, or Iran-related transactions. Partial sanctions relief will qualify, including relief limited to a specific Iranian sector, Iranian state entity, Iranian financial institution, or category of Iran-related transactions. A new or expanded OFAC general license, waiver, regulation, or other official action will qualify if it materially authorizes activity that was previously prohibited under direct Iran-related OFAC sanctions.
Sanctions relief for a non-Iranian third party will not qualify, regardless of whether that party was sanctioned for Iran-related activity.
The passage of an official act/executive order or issuance of an official regulation, license, waiver, or other official action lifting or materially easing OFAC sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if the lifting or easing of those sanctions does not come into effect until after this market's resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of the Treasury and OFAC, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Sanctions could include measures like blocking sanctions, financial restrictions, trade restrictions, travel bans, restrictions on specific Iranian individuals or entities, sectoral sanctions, or any other Iran-related measures administered or enforced by OFAC that are commonly recognized as direct sanctions.
For purposes of this market, qualifying sanctions relief must materially suspend, waive, lift, or ease direct OFAC sanctions on Iran, the Government of Iran, Iranian persons or entities, Iranian sectors, or Iran-related transactions. Partial sanctions relief will qualify, including relief limited to a specific Iranian sector, Iranian state entity, Iranian financial institution, or category of Iran-related transactions. A new or expanded OFAC general license, waiver, regulation, or other official action will qualify if it materially authorizes activity that was previously prohibited under direct Iran-related OFAC sanctions.
Sanctions relief for a non-Iranian third party will not qualify, regardless of whether that party was sanctioned for Iran-related activity.
The passage of an official act/executive order or issuance of an official regulation, license, waiver, or other official action lifting or materially easing OFAC sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if the lifting or easing of those sanctions does not come into effect until after this market's resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of the Treasury and OFAC, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: May 19, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Volume
$968End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially suspends, waives, lifts, removes, or materially eases any existing direct OFAC sanctions on Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Sanctions could include measures like blocking sanctions, financial restrictions, trade restrictions, travel bans, restrictions on specific Iranian individuals or entities, sectoral sanctions, or any other Iran-related measures administered or enforced by OFAC that are commonly recognized as direct sanctions.
For purposes of this market, qualifying sanctions relief must materially suspend, waive, lift, or ease direct OFAC sanctions on Iran, the Government of Iran, Iranian persons or entities, Iranian sectors, or Iran-related transactions. Partial sanctions relief will qualify, including relief limited to a specific Iranian sector, Iranian state entity, Iranian financial institution, or category of Iran-related transactions. A new or expanded OFAC general license, waiver, regulation, or other official action will qualify if it materially authorizes activity that was previously prohibited under direct Iran-related OFAC sanctions.
Sanctions relief for a non-Iranian third party will not qualify, regardless of whether that party was sanctioned for Iran-related activity.
The passage of an official act/executive order or issuance of an official regulation, license, waiver, or other official action lifting or materially easing OFAC sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if the lifting or easing of those sanctions does not come into effect until after this market's resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of the Treasury and OFAC, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, including renewed executive actions and OFAC designations targeting Iran’s oil shipping networks and proxy militias, remains the dominant driver shaping trader assessments of when broader OFAC sanctions relief might occur. Recent temporary general licenses authorizing limited transactions involving Iranian crude already at sea expired in mid-April 2026 amid efforts to stabilize global energy markets following U.S.-Israeli military operations, yet new Iran-related designations continued into May. Any sustained easing would likely hinge on verifiable progress in nuclear negotiations, Iranian compliance with existing restrictions, or shifts in congressional support for sanctions authority. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and oil market volatility through summer 2026 represent the nearest potential catalysts that could alter the current trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially suspends, waives, lifts, removes, or materially eases any existing direct OFAC sanctions on Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Sanctions could include measures like blocking sanctions, financial restrictions, trade restrictions, travel bans, restrictions on specific Iranian individuals or entities, sectoral sanctions, or any other Iran-related measures administered or enforced by OFAC that are commonly recognized as direct sanctions.
For purposes of this market, qualifying sanctions relief must materially suspend, waive, lift, or ease direct OFAC sanctions on Iran, the Government of Iran, Iranian persons or entities, Iranian sectors, or Iran-related transactions. Partial sanctions relief will qualify, including relief limited to a specific Iranian sector, Iranian state entity, Iranian financial institution, or category of Iran-related transactions. A new or expanded OFAC general license, waiver, regulation, or other official action will qualify if it materially authorizes activity that was previously prohibited under direct Iran-related OFAC sanctions.
Sanctions relief for a non-Iranian third party will not qualify, regardless of whether that party was sanctioned for Iran-related activity.
The passage of an official act/executive order or issuance of an official regulation, license, waiver, or other official action lifting or materially easing OFAC sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if the lifting or easing of those sanctions does not come into effect until after this market's resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of the Treasury and OFAC, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Sanctions could include measures like blocking sanctions, financial restrictions, trade restrictions, travel bans, restrictions on specific Iranian individuals or entities, sectoral sanctions, or any other Iran-related measures administered or enforced by OFAC that are commonly recognized as direct sanctions.
For purposes of this market, qualifying sanctions relief must materially suspend, waive, lift, or ease direct OFAC sanctions on Iran, the Government of Iran, Iranian persons or entities, Iranian sectors, or Iran-related transactions. Partial sanctions relief will qualify, including relief limited to a specific Iranian sector, Iranian state entity, Iranian financial institution, or category of Iran-related transactions. A new or expanded OFAC general license, waiver, regulation, or other official action will qualify if it materially authorizes activity that was previously prohibited under direct Iran-related OFAC sanctions.
Sanctions relief for a non-Iranian third party will not qualify, regardless of whether that party was sanctioned for Iran-related activity.
The passage of an official act/executive order or issuance of an official regulation, license, waiver, or other official action lifting or materially easing OFAC sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if the lifting or easing of those sanctions does not come into effect until after this market's resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of the Treasury and OFAC, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$968End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, including renewed executive actions and OFAC designations targeting Iran’s oil shipping networks and proxy militias, remains the dominant driver shaping trader assessments of when broader OFAC sanctions relief might occur. Recent temporary general licenses authorizing limited transactions involving Iranian crude already at sea expired in mid-April 2026 amid efforts to stabilize global energy markets following U.S.-Israeli military operations, yet new Iran-related designations continued into May. Any sustained easing would likely hinge on verifiable progress in nuclear negotiations, Iranian compliance with existing restrictions, or shifts in congressional support for sanctions authority. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and oil market volatility through summer 2026 represent the nearest potential catalysts that could alter the current trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions