**US and China officials are advancing talks on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods each way, including energy, agriculture, and manufacturing inputs, building on the May 2026 framework and the one-year trade truce reached in October 2025.** Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the Trump-Xi summit set for September 24 in Washington, with expectations that the meetings will produce concrete steps on duty cuts and an extension of the truce set to expire in November. These developments, alongside commitments to limit new levies within agreed ceilings and ongoing Board of Trade consultations, underpin trader assessments that some form of tariff agreement or extension is highly probable before year-end. The consensus reflects the momentum from recent bilateral engagements and shared interest in stabilizing trade flows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated89% chance
$252,409 Vol.
$252,409 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
89% chance
$252,409 Vol.
$252,409 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**US and China officials are advancing talks on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods each way, including energy, agriculture, and manufacturing inputs, building on the May 2026 framework and the one-year trade truce reached in October 2025.**
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the Trump-Xi summit set for September 24 in Washington, with expectations that the meetings will produce concrete steps on duty cuts and an extension of the truce set to expire in November. These developments, alongside commitments to limit new levies within agreed ceilings and ongoing Board of Trade consultations, underpin trader assessments that some form of tariff agreement or extension is highly probable before year-end. The consensus reflects the momentum from recent bilateral engagements and shared interest in stabilizing trade flows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$252,409End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**US and China officials are advancing talks on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods each way, including energy, agriculture, and manufacturing inputs, building on the May 2026 framework and the one-year trade truce reached in October 2025.**
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the Trump-Xi summit set for September 24 in Washington, with expectations that the meetings will produce concrete steps on duty cuts and an extension of the truce set to expire in November. These developments, alongside commitments to limit new levies within agreed ceilings and ongoing Board of Trade consultations, underpin trader assessments that some form of tariff agreement or extension is highly probable before year-end. The consensus reflects the momentum from recent bilateral engagements and shared interest in stabilizing trade flows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$252,409End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US and China officials are advancing talks on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods each way, including energy, agriculture, and manufacturing inputs, building on the May 2026 framework and the one-year trade truce reached in October 2025.** Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the Trump-Xi summit set for September 24 in Washington, with expectations that the meetings will produce concrete steps on duty cuts and an extension of the truce set to expire in November. These developments, alongside commitments to limit new levies within agreed ceilings and ongoing Board of Trade consultations, underpin trader assessments that some form of tariff agreement or extension is highly probable before year-end. The consensus reflects the momentum from recent bilateral engagements and shared interest in stabilizing trade flows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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