Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc secured a narrow parliamentary majority in the September 13, 2026, election, leading the Tidö parties 176–173 in preliminary counts after volatile vote tabulation. SVT’s election model assessed the opposition’s edge as effectively secure once 99 percent of ballots were tallied, with late advance and overseas votes unlikely to reverse the outcome. Pre-election polling had shown the opposition ahead for months, though the gap narrowed in August; the final seat distribution aligned with those trends and reflected voter priorities on economic conditions, security, and immigration. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for an opposition margin of three to four seats reflects this confirmed preliminary result. A reversal remains possible only if the final official tally from county boards produces an unprecedented swing in the remaining ballots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpposition by 3–4 96.7%
Opposition by 1–2 1.4%
Tidö by 1–2 <1%
Opposition by 5–6 <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Opposition by 7+
<1%
Opposition by 5–6
<1%
Opposition by 3–4
97%
Opposition by 1–2
1%
Tidö by 1–2
1%
Tidö by 3–4
<1%
Tidö by 5+
<1%
Opposition by 3–4 96.7%
Opposition by 1–2 1.4%
Tidö by 1–2 <1%
Opposition by 5–6 <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Opposition by 7+
$710 Vol.
<1%
Opposition by 5–6
$205 Vol.
<1%
Opposition by 3–4
$2,359 Vol.
97%
Opposition by 1–2
$1,807 Vol.
1%
Tidö by 1–2
$868 Vol.
1%
Tidö by 3–4
$426 Vol.
<1%
Tidö by 5+
$29 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc secured a narrow parliamentary majority in the September 13, 2026, election, leading the Tidö parties 176–173 in preliminary counts after volatile vote tabulation. SVT’s election model assessed the opposition’s edge as effectively secure once 99 percent of ballots were tallied, with late advance and overseas votes unlikely to reverse the outcome. Pre-election polling had shown the opposition ahead for months, though the gap narrowed in August; the final seat distribution aligned with those trends and reflected voter priorities on economic conditions, security, and immigration. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for an opposition margin of three to four seats reflects this confirmed preliminary result. A reversal remains possible only if the final official tally from county boards produces an unprecedented swing in the remaining ballots.
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$6,404End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc secured a narrow parliamentary majority in the September 13, 2026, election, leading the Tidö parties 176–173 in preliminary counts after volatile vote tabulation. SVT’s election model assessed the opposition’s edge as effectively secure once 99 percent of ballots were tallied, with late advance and overseas votes unlikely to reverse the outcome. Pre-election polling had shown the opposition ahead for months, though the gap narrowed in August; the final seat distribution aligned with those trends and reflected voter priorities on economic conditions, security, and immigration. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for an opposition margin of three to four seats reflects this confirmed preliminary result. A reversal remains possible only if the final official tally from county boards produces an unprecedented swing in the remaining ballots.
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$6,404End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc secured a narrow parliamentary majority in the September 13, 2026, election, leading the Tidö parties 176–173 in preliminary counts after volatile vote tabulation. SVT’s election model assessed the opposition’s edge as effectively secure once 99 percent of ballots were tallied, with late advance and overseas votes unlikely to reverse the outcome. Pre-election polling had shown the opposition ahead for months, though the gap narrowed in August; the final seat distribution aligned with those trends and reflected voter priorities on economic conditions, security, and immigration. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent for an opposition margin of three to four seats reflects this confirmed preliminary result. A reversal remains possible only if the final official tally from county boards produces an unprecedented swing in the remaining ballots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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