Tight U.S. cattle inventories, now at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January 1, 2026, continue to constrain beef production, which USDA projects will contract another 2% this year to 25.79 billion pounds. This supply squeeze has already lifted retail ground beef prices to $6.70 per pound in March, up nearly 16% year-over-year, while the all-fresh retail beef price averaged $9.47 in January and reached $9.64 in February. Persistent drought conditions and a multi-year herd liquidation phase sustain elevated feed costs and limit herd rebuilding, supporting wholesale cutout values near $350 per hundredweight amid robust consumer demand. Traders are monitoring the May BLS April CPI release and the July cattle inventory report for signals on whether prices breach higher thresholds before potential stabilization later in 2026 as import volumes rise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill ground beef hit __ in 2026?
Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?
$18,696 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$7.000+
78%
$8.000+
53%
$9.000+
39%
$10.000+
16%
$18,696 Vol.
$7.000+
$50 Vol.
78%
$8.000+
$1,514 Vol.
53%
$9.000+
$22 Vol.
39%
$10.000+
$17,111 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Tight U.S. cattle inventories, now at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January 1, 2026, continue to constrain beef production, which USDA projects will contract another 2% this year to 25.79 billion pounds. This supply squeeze has already lifted retail ground beef prices to $6.70 per pound in March, up nearly 16% year-over-year, while the all-fresh retail beef price averaged $9.47 in January and reached $9.64 in February. Persistent drought conditions and a multi-year herd liquidation phase sustain elevated feed costs and limit herd rebuilding, supporting wholesale cutout values near $350 per hundredweight amid robust consumer demand. Traders are monitoring the May BLS April CPI release and the July cattle inventory report for signals on whether prices breach higher thresholds before potential stabilization later in 2026 as import volumes rise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$18,696End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Tight U.S. cattle inventories, now at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January 1, 2026, continue to constrain beef production, which USDA projects will contract another 2% this year to 25.79 billion pounds. This supply squeeze has already lifted retail ground beef prices to $6.70 per pound in March, up nearly 16% year-over-year, while the all-fresh retail beef price averaged $9.47 in January and reached $9.64 in February. Persistent drought conditions and a multi-year herd liquidation phase sustain elevated feed costs and limit herd rebuilding, supporting wholesale cutout values near $350 per hundredweight amid robust consumer demand. Traders are monitoring the May BLS April CPI release and the July cattle inventory report for signals on whether prices breach higher thresholds before potential stabilization later in 2026 as import volumes rise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$18,696End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tight U.S. cattle inventories, now at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January 1, 2026, continue to constrain beef production, which USDA projects will contract another 2% this year to 25.79 billion pounds. This supply squeeze has already lifted retail ground beef prices to $6.70 per pound in March, up nearly 16% year-over-year, while the all-fresh retail beef price averaged $9.47 in January and reached $9.64 in February. Persistent drought conditions and a multi-year herd liquidation phase sustain elevated feed costs and limit herd rebuilding, supporting wholesale cutout values near $350 per hundredweight amid robust consumer demand. Traders are monitoring the May BLS April CPI release and the July cattle inventory report for signals on whether prices breach higher thresholds before potential stabilization later in 2026 as import volumes rise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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