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Politics·Congress

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

icon for Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?
Politics·Congress

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

$41,293 Vol.

May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$41,293 Vol.

Polymarket

May 22

$28,079 Vol.

69%

May 31

$7,593 Vol.

82%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Senate Republicans advanced a fiscal year 2026 budget resolution in late April that unlocks the reconciliation process for a spending package focused on immigration enforcement and border security. Committees in both chambers have since released draft text totaling roughly $72 billion over ten years for agencies including Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection, with instructions to finalize language by mid-May. The procedure allows the bill to reach the Senate floor for a simple-majority vote, bypassing the usual 60-vote threshold. Leadership has set a target for final Senate passage by early June, though committee markups, potential amendments, and coordination with the House remain key steps that could shift the timeline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$41,293
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Senate Republicans advanced a fiscal year 2026 budget resolution in late April that unlocks the reconciliation process for a spending package focused on immigration enforcement and border security. Committees in both chambers have since released draft text totaling roughly $72 billion over ten years for agencies including Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection, with instructions to finalize language by mid-May. The procedure allows the bill to reach the Senate floor for a simple-majority vote, bypassing the usual 60-vote threshold. Leadership has set a target for final Senate passage by early June, though committee markups, potential amendments, and coordination with the House remain key steps that could shift the timeline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$41,293
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 31" at 82%, followed by "May 22" at 69%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" has generated $41.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" is "May 31" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 22" at 69%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.