Recent rapid intensification of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1°C by mid-July 2026 and continuing to climb, underpins the 88.9% market-implied probability of a super El Niño this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and multi-model ensembles show an 81% chance of a very strong event (anomalies exceeding 2.0°C) during October–December, driven by robust ocean-atmosphere coupling and upper-ocean heat content that exceeds recent analogs. Historical records indicate such thresholds typically define super El Niño episodes, which peak in Northern Hemisphere winter. While forecast models exhibit strong consensus, minor variability in peak intensity remains possible ahead of the next CPC update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
89% chance
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2027
89% chance
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent rapid intensification of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1°C by mid-July 2026 and continuing to climb, underpins the 88.9% market-implied probability of a super El Niño this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and multi-model ensembles show an 81% chance of a very strong event (anomalies exceeding 2.0°C) during October–December, driven by robust ocean-atmosphere coupling and upper-ocean heat content that exceeds recent analogs. Historical records indicate such thresholds typically define super El Niño episodes, which peak in Northern Hemisphere winter. While forecast models exhibit strong consensus, minor variability in peak intensity remains possible ahead of the next CPC update.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$4,803End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent rapid intensification of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1°C by mid-July 2026 and continuing to climb, underpins the 88.9% market-implied probability of a super El Niño this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and multi-model ensembles show an 81% chance of a very strong event (anomalies exceeding 2.0°C) during October–December, driven by robust ocean-atmosphere coupling and upper-ocean heat content that exceeds recent analogs. Historical records indicate such thresholds typically define super El Niño episodes, which peak in Northern Hemisphere winter. While forecast models exhibit strong consensus, minor variability in peak intensity remains possible ahead of the next CPC update.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$4,803End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent rapid intensification of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1°C by mid-July 2026 and continuing to climb, underpins the 88.9% market-implied probability of a super El Niño this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and multi-model ensembles show an 81% chance of a very strong event (anomalies exceeding 2.0°C) during October–December, driven by robust ocean-atmosphere coupling and upper-ocean heat content that exceeds recent analogs. Historical records indicate such thresholds typically define super El Niño episodes, which peak in Northern Hemisphere winter. While forecast models exhibit strong consensus, minor variability in peak intensity remains possible ahead of the next CPC update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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