Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Will Trump pardon anyone by...?

Will Trump pardon anyone by...?

icon for Will Trump pardon anyone by...?

Will Trump pardon anyone by...?

NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,359 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$458 Vol.

34%

December 31

$901 Vol.

78%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has continued issuing federal pardons and commutations at a steady pace during his second term, including a batch of 30 clemency grants on September 3–4, 2026, and at least one additional action days later. These followed earlier rounds in 2025 and 2026 that bypassed the traditional Justice Department process in most cases and often benefited individuals with political connections, donors, or advocates using informal channels. A White House “pardon czar” has coordinated recent efforts, while reports highlight a growing network of brokers seeking access for clients. Democratic lawmakers have signaled potential oversight if they regain congressional control. Markets on near-term pardon activity reflect trader assessments of this ongoing pattern, the timing of any new grants, and the absence of announced pauses or structural changes that would halt clemency actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,359
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has continued issuing federal pardons and commutations at a steady pace during his second term, including a batch of 30 clemency grants on September 3–4, 2026, and at least one additional action days later. These followed earlier rounds in 2025 and 2026 that bypassed the traditional Justice Department process in most cases and often benefited individuals with political connections, donors, or advocates using informal channels. A White House “pardon czar” has coordinated recent efforts, while reports highlight a growing network of brokers seeking access for clients. Democratic lawmakers have signaled potential oversight if they regain congressional control. Markets on near-term pardon activity reflect trader assessments of this ongoing pattern, the timing of any new grants, and the absence of announced pauses or structural changes that would halt clemency actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,359
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump pardon anyone by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 78%, followed by "September 30" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Trump pardon anyone by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Trump pardon anyone by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Trump pardon anyone by...?" is "December 31" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump pardon anyone by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.