Trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability of no U.S. annexation of territory in 2026, driven by stalled early-year momentum on President Trump's Greenland rhetoric despite supportive Republican bills like the Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act introduced in January. Bipartisan opposition, including Democratic measures to block funding for seizures of NATO ally territory and Republican reservations citing treaty obligations, has prevented progress, compounded by Danish and Greenlandic rejections and constitutional requirements for congressional approval. Recent May statements on Venezuela as a potential "51st state" remain rhetorical amid denials from its acting president, underscoring significant legal, diplomatic, and international law barriers absent any military or formal diplomatic actions through mid-May.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,830 Vol.
$22,830 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$22,830 Vol.
$22,830 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability of no U.S. annexation of territory in 2026, driven by stalled early-year momentum on President Trump's Greenland rhetoric despite supportive Republican bills like the Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act introduced in January. Bipartisan opposition, including Democratic measures to block funding for seizures of NATO ally territory and Republican reservations citing treaty obligations, has prevented progress, compounded by Danish and Greenlandic rejections and constitutional requirements for congressional approval. Recent May statements on Venezuela as a potential "51st state" remain rhetorical amid denials from its acting president, underscoring significant legal, diplomatic, and international law barriers absent any military or formal diplomatic actions through mid-May.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
Volume
$22,830End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability of no U.S. annexation of territory in 2026, driven by stalled early-year momentum on President Trump's Greenland rhetoric despite supportive Republican bills like the Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act introduced in January. Bipartisan opposition, including Democratic measures to block funding for seizures of NATO ally territory and Republican reservations citing treaty obligations, has prevented progress, compounded by Danish and Greenlandic rejections and constitutional requirements for congressional approval. Recent May statements on Venezuela as a potential "51st state" remain rhetorical amid denials from its acting president, underscoring significant legal, diplomatic, and international law barriers absent any military or formal diplomatic actions through mid-May.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$22,830End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability of no U.S. annexation of territory in 2026, driven by stalled early-year momentum on President Trump's Greenland rhetoric despite supportive Republican bills like the Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act introduced in January. Bipartisan opposition, including Democratic measures to block funding for seizures of NATO ally territory and Republican reservations citing treaty obligations, has prevented progress, compounded by Danish and Greenlandic rejections and constitutional requirements for congressional approval. Recent May statements on Venezuela as a potential "51st state" remain rhetorical amid denials from its acting president, underscoring significant legal, diplomatic, and international law barriers absent any military or formal diplomatic actions through mid-May.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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