Traders assign overwhelming probability against Venezuela achieving U.S. statehood because no constitutional mechanism, legislative proposal, or diplomatic channel supports admission of a foreign sovereign nation. Article IV of the U.S. Constitution reserves statehood for territories under federal jurisdiction, typically requiring congressional legislation, presidential approval, and often a local referendum—none of which exist or have been initiated for Venezuela. Bilateral relations remain defined by sanctions, migration policy disputes, and recognition of the Maduro government rather than integration talks. With no scheduled votes, executive actions, or treaty negotiations on the horizon, realistic shifts would require unprecedented events such as formal annexation proposals or major sovereignty transfers, developments absent from current U.S. or Venezuelan policy agendas.