**Atsumi Harasawa leads trader consensus at 59% in this special Yokohama mayoral election, triggered by former mayor Takeharu Yamanaka’s September 7 resignation after a third-party investigation confirmed power harassment incidents.** The October 18 vote features a fragmented field, with Harasawa gaining LDP recommendation and business backing as a lawyer emphasizing governance and compliance; she has signaled opposition to integrated resort development. Kazuma Nakatani, supported by the CDP and running explicitly against casinos, Fukuyama Atsushi backed by Sanseito, and Communist Party candidate Yuka Asaka add competition focused on reform, transparency, and local issues. Multiple declarations in September and party alignments have kept probabilities tight among lesser-known entrants, with the short campaign window and split opposition votes shaping the current implied probabilities.