National Weather Service ensemble guidance and recent GFS-ECMWF model runs project a daytime high near 77°F in New York City on May 16 under a building high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies and light southerly flow. This strong model consensus, well above the seasonal normal of 67–68°F, underpins the market’s overwhelming 94% implied probability for the 76–77°F bin. Traders view the current setup as stable, with limited downside risk from clouds or stronger northerly winds that could suppress readings. Only a significant late-model shift or unexpected marine influence would realistically push the high into the 78–79°F range or higher, scenarios the market currently prices at under 7% combined.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in NYC on May 16?
76-77°F 94%
78-79°F 5%
80-81°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$145,825 Vol.
$145,825 Vol.
76-77°F
94%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 94%
78-79°F 5%
80-81°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$145,825 Vol.
$145,825 Vol.
76-77°F
94%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service ensemble guidance and recent GFS-ECMWF model runs project a daytime high near 77°F in New York City on May 16 under a building high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies and light southerly flow. This strong model consensus, well above the seasonal normal of 67–68°F, underpins the market’s overwhelming 94% implied probability for the 76–77°F bin. Traders view the current setup as stable, with limited downside risk from clouds or stronger northerly winds that could suppress readings. Only a significant late-model shift or unexpected marine influence would realistically push the high into the 78–79°F range or higher, scenarios the market currently prices at under 7% combined.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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