No qualifying 5kt bolide has been recorded through mid-2026, keeping the market-implied odds for “No” at 60% amid NASA’s CNEOS fireball database showing only sub-kiloton events, including the largest March 17 Ohio airburst at 0.25 kt. Historical global detections of 5 kt-scale impacts average just 0.2–0.5 per year, and the current Q1 surge in witnessed fireballs—driven by seasonal northern-hemisphere activity—has not produced any objects energetic enough to meet resolution criteria. Ongoing Sentry monitoring and infrasound networks continue to flag only minuscule near-Earth-object risks with probabilities below 0.004%, reinforcing trader consensus that undetected small asteroids remain statistically unlikely to deliver a qualifying strike before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sì
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No qualifying 5kt bolide has been recorded through mid-2026, keeping the market-implied odds for “No” at 60% amid NASA’s CNEOS fireball database showing only sub-kiloton events, including the largest March 17 Ohio airburst at 0.25 kt. Historical global detections of 5 kt-scale impacts average just 0.2–0.5 per year, and the current Q1 surge in witnessed fireballs—driven by seasonal northern-hemisphere activity—has not produced any objects energetic enough to meet resolution criteria. Ongoing Sentry monitoring and infrasound networks continue to flag only minuscule near-Earth-object risks with probabilities below 0.004%, reinforcing trader consensus that undetected small asteroids remain statistically unlikely to deliver a qualifying strike before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$300,653Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No qualifying 5kt bolide has been recorded through mid-2026, keeping the market-implied odds for “No” at 60% amid NASA’s CNEOS fireball database showing only sub-kiloton events, including the largest March 17 Ohio airburst at 0.25 kt. Historical global detections of 5 kt-scale impacts average just 0.2–0.5 per year, and the current Q1 surge in witnessed fireballs—driven by seasonal northern-hemisphere activity—has not produced any objects energetic enough to meet resolution criteria. Ongoing Sentry monitoring and infrasound networks continue to flag only minuscule near-Earth-object risks with probabilities below 0.004%, reinforcing trader consensus that undetected small asteroids remain statistically unlikely to deliver a qualifying strike before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$300,653Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No qualifying 5kt bolide has been recorded through mid-2026, keeping the market-implied odds for “No” at 60% amid NASA’s CNEOS fireball database showing only sub-kiloton events, including the largest March 17 Ohio airburst at 0.25 kt. Historical global detections of 5 kt-scale impacts average just 0.2–0.5 per year, and the current Q1 surge in witnessed fireballs—driven by seasonal northern-hemisphere activity—has not produced any objects energetic enough to meet resolution criteria. Ongoing Sentry monitoring and infrasound networks continue to flag only minuscule near-Earth-object risks with probabilities below 0.004%, reinforcing trader consensus that undetected small asteroids remain statistically unlikely to deliver a qualifying strike before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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