Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts confirm a minimum temperature of 15°C for Tokyo on May 14 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to rain later, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on this outcome as reflected in market-implied odds. This positioning stems from high model agreement across JMA's short-range guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing colder air advection amid typical mid-May climatological lows of 14–18°C at Tokyo's observatory. Overnight observations already approaching this threshold further solidify sentiment. Realistic challenges include unexpected clear skies enhancing radiational cooling to 14°C or prolonged cloud cover preventing the low—though current steering patterns make such shifts unlikely—with final JMA data expected by evening.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Tokyo il 14 maggio?
La temperatura più bassa di Tokyo il 14 maggio?
15°C 100.0%
13°C o inferiore <1%
14°C <1%
16°C <1%
$45,016 Vol.
$45,016 Vol.
14 mag 2026
13°C o inferiore
No
14°C
No
15°C
Sì
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C o superiore
No
15°C 100.0%
13°C o inferiore <1%
14°C <1%
16°C <1%
$45,016 Vol.
$45,016 Vol.
14 mag 2026
13°C o inferiore
$3,157 Vol.
No
14°C
$2,941 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,150 Vol.
Sì
16°C
$9,271 Vol.
No
17°C
$7,424 Vol.
No
18°C
$14,849 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,411 Vol.
No
20°C
$793 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,337 Vol.
No
22°C
$758 Vol.
No
23°C o superiore
$924 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts confirm a minimum temperature of 15°C for Tokyo on May 14 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to rain later, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on this outcome as reflected in market-implied odds. This positioning stems from high model agreement across JMA's short-range guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing colder air advection amid typical mid-May climatological lows of 14–18°C at Tokyo's observatory. Overnight observations already approaching this threshold further solidify sentiment. Realistic challenges include unexpected clear skies enhancing radiational cooling to 14°C or prolonged cloud cover preventing the low—though current steering patterns make such shifts unlikely—with final JMA data expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$45,016Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts confirm a minimum temperature of 15°C for Tokyo on May 14 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to rain later, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on this outcome as reflected in market-implied odds. This positioning stems from high model agreement across JMA's short-range guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing colder air advection amid typical mid-May climatological lows of 14–18°C at Tokyo's observatory. Overnight observations already approaching this threshold further solidify sentiment. Realistic challenges include unexpected clear skies enhancing radiational cooling to 14°C or prolonged cloud cover preventing the low—though current steering patterns make such shifts unlikely—with final JMA data expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$45,016Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts confirm a minimum temperature of 15°C for Tokyo on May 14 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to rain later, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on this outcome as reflected in market-implied odds. This positioning stems from high model agreement across JMA's short-range guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing colder air advection amid typical mid-May climatological lows of 14–18°C at Tokyo's observatory. Overnight observations already approaching this threshold further solidify sentiment. Realistic challenges include unexpected clear skies enhancing radiational cooling to 14°C or prolonged cloud cover preventing the low—though current steering patterns make such shifts unlikely—with final JMA data expected by evening.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti