Trader consensus strongly favors no major meteor strike delivering 10 kilotons or more of energy in 2026, as reflected in the 85% market-implied odds for that outcome. This positioning stems from long-term astronomical data on near-Earth object impact frequencies, which show such events occur far less than once per decade on average. No recent detections or trajectory updates from planetary defense networks have flagged any high-risk asteroids or comets for the remainder of the year, and ongoing surveys continue without raising alerts. While surprise discoveries or orbital perturbations remain theoretically possible, the lack of any credible developments in recent months keeps the probability firmly anchored on historical rarity.