Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent Sergipe governor, leads trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability due to consistent polling advantages and coalition support from parties including PT, PP, and União Brasil ahead of the October 4, 2026 first-round vote. Recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, CTAS, and França show him ahead or in technical ties with Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at around 40%, with other names like Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), and Dr. Helton trailing in single digits. Incumbency benefits and early campaign organization have reinforced this positioning in the weeks leading into the formal campaign period, though the race remains open to shifts from further polling or coalition developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFábio 72%
Valmir de Francisquinho 21%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Dott. Helton <1%
$10,556 Vol.
$10,556 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Fábio
72%
Valmir de Francisquinho
21%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
1%
Dott. Helton
1%
Emanuel Cacho
1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 72%
Valmir de Francisquinho 21%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Dott. Helton <1%
$10,556 Vol.
$10,556 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Fábio
$8,202 Vol.
72%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$844 Vol.
21%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$305 Vol.
1%
Dott. Helton
$430 Vol.
1%
Emanuel Cacho
$391 Vol.
1%
Ricardo Marques
$385 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent Sergipe governor, leads trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability due to consistent polling advantages and coalition support from parties including PT, PP, and União Brasil ahead of the October 4, 2026 first-round vote. Recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, CTAS, and França show him ahead or in technical ties with Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at around 40%, with other names like Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), and Dr. Helton trailing in single digits. Incumbency benefits and early campaign organization have reinforced this positioning in the weeks leading into the formal campaign period, though the race remains open to shifts from further polling or coalition developments.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$10,556Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent Sergipe governor, leads trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability due to consistent polling advantages and coalition support from parties including PT, PP, and União Brasil ahead of the October 4, 2026 first-round vote. Recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, CTAS, and França show him ahead or in technical ties with Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at around 40%, with other names like Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), and Dr. Helton trailing in single digits. Incumbency benefits and early campaign organization have reinforced this positioning in the weeks leading into the formal campaign period, though the race remains open to shifts from further polling or coalition developments.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,556Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent Sergipe governor, leads trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability due to consistent polling advantages and coalition support from parties including PT, PP, and União Brasil ahead of the October 4, 2026 first-round vote. Recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, CTAS, and França show him ahead or in technical ties with Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at around 40%, with other names like Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), and Dr. Helton trailing in single digits. Incumbency benefits and early campaign organization have reinforced this positioning in the weeks leading into the formal campaign period, though the race remains open to shifts from further polling or coalition developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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