An Alberta Court of King's Bench ruling on May 13 quashed a citizen-led petition from the Stay Free Alberta group, which had gathered over 300,000 signatures for an independence referendum, citing failure to adequately consult First Nations under treaties covering the province. This legal setback, coupled with Premier Danielle Smith's confirmation that separation is not among the nine policy questions—on immigration, constitutional powers, and equalization—scheduled for the official October 19 provincial referendum, has solidified trader consensus against a yes vote. Recent polls, including April surveys by CBC and Abacus Data, show support for secession hovering at 25-30%, far short of a majority, while Canada's federal Clarity Act imposes stringent barriers to any provincial separation. An appeal is underway, but structural and public opinion hurdles justify the 89% implied probability of no.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$66,166 Vol.
$66,166 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$66,166 Vol.
$66,166 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.An Alberta Court of King's Bench ruling on May 13 quashed a citizen-led petition from the Stay Free Alberta group, which had gathered over 300,000 signatures for an independence referendum, citing failure to adequately consult First Nations under treaties covering the province. This legal setback, coupled with Premier Danielle Smith's confirmation that separation is not among the nine policy questions—on immigration, constitutional powers, and equalization—scheduled for the official October 19 provincial referendum, has solidified trader consensus against a yes vote. Recent polls, including April surveys by CBC and Abacus Data, show support for secession hovering at 25-30%, far short of a majority, while Canada's federal Clarity Act imposes stringent barriers to any provincial separation. An appeal is underway, but structural and public opinion hurdles justify the 89% implied probability of no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$66,166Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.An Alberta Court of King's Bench ruling on May 13 quashed a citizen-led petition from the Stay Free Alberta group, which had gathered over 300,000 signatures for an independence referendum, citing failure to adequately consult First Nations under treaties covering the province. This legal setback, coupled with Premier Danielle Smith's confirmation that separation is not among the nine policy questions—on immigration, constitutional powers, and equalization—scheduled for the official October 19 provincial referendum, has solidified trader consensus against a yes vote. Recent polls, including April surveys by CBC and Abacus Data, show support for secession hovering at 25-30%, far short of a majority, while Canada's federal Clarity Act imposes stringent barriers to any provincial separation. An appeal is underway, but structural and public opinion hurdles justify the 89% implied probability of no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$66,166Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...An Alberta Court of King's Bench ruling on May 13 quashed a citizen-led petition from the Stay Free Alberta group, which had gathered over 300,000 signatures for an independence referendum, citing failure to adequately consult First Nations under treaties covering the province. This legal setback, coupled with Premier Danielle Smith's confirmation that separation is not among the nine policy questions—on immigration, constitutional powers, and equalization—scheduled for the official October 19 provincial referendum, has solidified trader consensus against a yes vote. Recent polls, including April surveys by CBC and Abacus Data, show support for secession hovering at 25-30%, far short of a majority, while Canada's federal Clarity Act imposes stringent barriers to any provincial separation. An appeal is underway, but structural and public opinion hurdles justify the 89% implied probability of no.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti